Wow.
Polls just closed in North Carolina and already the networks are calling it for Barack Obama.
Meanwhile, Indiana’s polls closed a half hour ago and the outcome is still up in the air. CNN has it as 57% for Clinton and 43% for Obama with 18% of precincts reporting.
More as it comes…
UPDATE: If Barack Obama’s an elitist, then so are the good people of Indiana; take a look at this exit poll result posted on Daily Kos:
Indiana:
Does Clinton share your values?
Yes 62
No 37
Does Obama share your values?
Yes 65
No 33
Let’s put this elitism garbage to bed once and for all, shall we?
And with 20% reporting, Indiana is still 57-43 Clinton-Obama.
UPDATE II: With a quarter of all districts reporting, Indiana’s percentages haven’t budged–we’re still at 57-43.
UPDATE III: CNN is showing nearly a third of Indiana’s precincts are reporting and the percentages are still 57-43 Clinton-Obama. If Obama’s going to make Indiana close, he’s going to have to start showing some movement pretty soon.
UPDATE IV: With 38% of Indiana precincts reporting, there has been some movement–now the totals are 56-44 Clinton-Obama. The start of a trend, or just some electoral static?
UPDATE V: Now CNN is showing Indiana as 55-45 Clinton-Obama. CBS has called it for Clinton but the other networks are holding off. Will Obama knock Clinton down to a single-digit victory in The Hoosier State?
UPDATE VI: CNN is showing Indiana at 54-46 Clinton-Obama with just over half of all precincts reporting. Looks like most networks were right to hold off calling this one just yet…
UPDATE VII: With 65% precincts reporting, Indiana is now at 53% Clinton and 47% Obama. In the past hour or so Obama has cut Clinton’s lead nearly in half; this is now a 6-point race.
UPDATE VIII: With 76% reporting, Indiana is now down to a 52-48 Clinton-Obama split. This is a huge blow to the Clinton campaign no matter how you cut it–IN was supposed to be her state, and for it to get so close is a bad omen in general. Tonight may very well erase any benefit she got from winning PA two weeks ago.
UPDATE IX: With 83% reporting, it’s still a 4-point spread, 52-48. Lake County–which is near the Indiana-Illinois border and where the Obama stronghold of Gary is–won’t report until 11:00 PM EST.
UPDATE X: With 91% of precincts reporting, it’s now Clinton with 51% and Obama with 49%. Even if those are the final percentages this will represent a huge coup for Obama. If he manages to win Indiana it will be an even bigger blow to Clinton, particularly considering the significant negative press he’s received since PA.
Stay tuned…
UPDATE XI: 92% in, still 51-49. Obama is down by more than 20,000 votes, but many of the outstanding areas are his strongholds. Will this be the straw that breaks the camel’s back? Even if Obama doesn’t pull out a victory, tonight will still be remarkable. Conventional wisdom said that working-class Indiana was Clinton’s–Obama wiped her lead out in a matter of days, despite several bad news cycles. If nothing else, tonight will be a testament to Obama’s ability to weather bad press and come out better in the end.
UPDATE XII: Kos brings us this line from Tim Russert:
Russert: Hillary Clinton has cancelled all her morning appearances.
That’s perhaps the most telling part of this. Despite her campaign’s spin, Clinton knows this is a huge blow to her Presidential ambitions. She’s far behind in the popular vote and the delegate count; being handed a humiliating defeat in what was widely considered a safely-Clinton state puts the Democratic nomination that much more out of reach.
Still 92% reporting, still 51-49.
UPDATE XIII: 95% of precincts are reporting. It’s still 51-49, but now Obama is behind by only 16,609 votes. In other words, the last 3% closed the gap by about 4,000 votes.
FINAL UPDATE: With 99% of the precincts remaining, it’s still 51-49. Clinton won Indiana, but by the slimmest of margins–out of 1.25 million votes cast, her margin of victory is just over 22,000 votes. That’s a less than 1% victory.
Indiana wasn’t supposed to be close–the last Pollster composite showed Clinton winning The Hooser State by more than 4%. In other words, despite weeks of bad press, Obama managed to whittle Clinton’s sizable lead to basically nothing. In addition, he picked up a sizable number of delegates by winning NC in a landslide.
The Democratic primary, for all intents and purposes, has been over for weeks now. But perhaps tonight will be the night that finally cements this fact into the DC conventional wisdom. Personally, I hope it does.