Democrashield.com

There are two special elections going on today–one in VA0-1 and one in OH-05.

In VA-01, Iraq War veteran and elementary school teacher Phil Forgit (D) faces off against career politician and House of Delegates member Rob Wittman (R) in the race to replace the late Jo Ann Davis (R). The last time a Democrat held this seat was Tom Downing in 1977, but with the GOP’s overall weakness–both nationwide and in VA–perhaps an upset is in the works.

For updates, be sure to check out Raising Kaine, who brings us these inspiring words from Electoral Map:

Today, the voters of Virginia’s 1st District, anchored in Fredericksburg, will elect either Republican state Rep. Rob Wittman or Democratic Iraq veteran Philip Forgit to replace the late Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R).

Throughout the district are symbols of Virginia new and old: Stratford Hall (Robert E. Lee’s birthplace) and Fort A.P. Hill (named after the Confederate general under Lee’s command), and Millennial Gov. Mark Warner’s (D) farm on the Northern Neck.

Which Virginia will show up today: Warner’s Democratic converts or the heirs of the old Democratic Party, now under the banner of the GOP, who ruled here for decades on the platform of despising Lincoln’s Republicans?

Polls indicate that it’ll probably be Wittman, but if history tells us anything it’s that this district should never be overlooked and is never easily won.

And in OH-05, a battle of epic proportions is being waged between public administrator Robin Weirauch (D) and Ohio House of Representatives member Bob Latta (R) to replace the late Paul Gillmor (R). Though this is supposed to be a solidly-red seat, the GOP side has been fraught with problems–Latta has been criticized for running an ineffective campaign; Steve Buehrer, who lost to Latta in the Republican primary, has been encouraging his supporters to stay home today; the NRCC has spent 16% of their total budget on holding this seat; Latta’s internal polls reportedly show him losing, and just this morning he got nailed by the police for illegal campaigning.

Nothing will be certain until the polls close, but I definitely see an opportunity here. According to Buckeye State Blog (which will have updates throughout the day), Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in OH-01 may retire if Weirauch pulls out a win.

No matter what, the big losers today are the NRCC for blowing so much money on holding a single seat. Let’s face it, they’re already 33 seats behind in the House–one won’t make much of a difference. If they win, they will have done so at a massive–and possibly unjustifiable–cost. If they lose, then their massive investment in this district will have been for nothing, and they may have to contend with the retirement of Rep. Chabot, to boot.

It’s an exciting day. If you live in either district, stop reading blogs and go cast your vote!

UPDATE: Rothenberg’s take, via Buckeye State Blog:

The reliably Republican nature of Ohio’s 5th district would seem to make it an unlikely target for Democrats, but a target it is in Tuesday’s special election.

And while political operatives from both parties scramble to downplay expectations, there is more than enough evidence to conclude that the race to fill the seat of the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R) is going down to the wire.

Republican Bob Latta, who should, under normal circumstances, win the race rather easily, finds himself in an uncomfortably competitive race against Democrat Robin Weirauch, who already has lost two bids for Congress in the district.

On The Web: Philip Forgit for Congress

Robin Weirauch for Congress