Democrashield.com

Putting the Presidential race aside, let’s look at some of the Senatorial and Congressional campaigns going on right now.

In Mississippi, Governor Haley Barbour appointed Rep. Roger Wicker to replace retiring Senator Trent Lott. Lott resigned suddenly after winning both re-election and a spot in the GOP leadership in 2006.  Since then, there has been a controversy over when exactly Wicker has to stand for re-election. 

Gov. Barbour scheduled the special election for Election Day 2008, giving Wicker nearly a year of incumbency and a high-turnout, high-interest election.   

Problem is, Mississippi law says that the special election has to be held within 90 days of the vacancy occurring, except in years where there’s a statewide election. Since Lott resigned after Louisiana’s ’07 statewide elections, Barbour broke the law by scheduling the election in November ‘08—a fact that was confirmed recently by a Mississippi court:  

A Hinds County Circuit judge ruled today that Gov. Haley Barbour exceeded his constitutional authority by setting the special election to replace former U.S. Sen. Trent Lott for November.

DeLaughter heard about an hour of arguments Monday in the dispute between state Attorney General Jim Hood and Barbour.

[...]

In his order, DeLaughter said the election should be held “within 90 days of the governor’s Dec. 20, 2007 proclamation of writ of election…on or before March 19, 2008.

Hood cited Mississippi Code 23-15-855, which applies to U.S. senator vacancies. He and Barbour have differing interpretations of that statute.

This is good news for Democrats–Wicker was a little-known Congressman with low name recognition, while both Democratic candidates–former Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Congressman Ronnie Shows–are well-known by the people of Mississippi.  Combine that with Wicker’s limited time in office to rack up any accomplishments and we could have a competitive race on our hands.

(Of course, the case is pending an appeal, so this could be overturned.  But, for now, Governor Barbour is going to have to find some other way to keep his hand-picked crony in office.)

In Minnesota, Al Franken is hitting the airwaves with two new TV ads.  Usually, ads for Senatorial and Congressional races don’t air this early, but Franken is competing with attorney Mike Cirsei in the February 5th primary.  Also, since much of the country is already paying attention to the Presidential campaigns, it doesn’t hurt to steal a bit of the limelight and give everyone someone new to talk about for a bit.  

Franken has raised an impressive amounts of money, which gives him the ability to start making his case to the voters this early without denting his warchest. In addition, it makes sense for Franken to get on the airwaves as soon as possible–the earlier he gets out there and defines himself, the harder it will be for Cirsei and Coleman to negatively define him later on. 

You can view the ads–entitled “Mrs. Molin” and “I’m Running”–here.  

On the Congressional side, Pennsylvania’s Patrick Murphy–the only Iraq war veteran in Congress– has an opponent:  

Republican Tom Manion, 53, will be kicking off his campaign against Murphy Tuesday, according to a source familiar with his intentions. His son, Marine 1st Lt. Travis Manion, was killed by a sniper last April during his second tour in Iraq.

Manion appears to be an early frontrunner for the Republican nomination and has secured key support from former GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, who was ousted by Murphy in 2006.

[...]

Manion, on the other hand, has been an outspoken supporter of the war.

Manion’s candidacy is a bit baffling.  What does he bring to the race? What experience? What ideas? Why, exactly, is he challenging Murphy–besides the fact that no other Republican would do it? And why does the Republican Party want to make this race about the war—a topic they lose on every single time?

Patrick Murphy is a decorated veteran who was awarded a Bronze Star for his service in Iraq.  As the only Iraq war veteran in Congress, he brings a hugely important perspective to the political debate on the war–his service has made him the most knowledgeable voice in Congress when it comes to the war, period.

Murphy is also a prolific fundraiser, banking over $1 million at the end of the third quarter.  Combine that with the fact that PA-08 is a Democratic-leaning district and that 2008 is shaping up to be a Democratic year, the Murphy campaign is extremely well-positioned in this race.  Still, I wouldn’t let my guard down–just in case.

Finally, in Indiana, the candidates have been chosen in the race to replace the late Rep. Julia Carson:  it will be Republican Jon Elrod versus Democrat Andre Carson.  Swing State Project brings us more:

Both decisions were made by party committees, not by the public. The GOP probably got their strongest candidate (relatively speaking), while we wound up with just about our weakest. I’m not thrilled. One diarist at Blue Indiana is even less happy. And CQ rates this seat – which is D+8.7 – at just “Lean Dem.”

Note, though, that the special election, which is on March 11th, is not on the same day as the primary for the November general. The primary will be held as previously scheduled on May 6th. That means that whether Carson wins or loses the special, he might not be our nominee this fall. (Elrod, on the other hand, is unopposed in the GOP primary.)

I hate to be a wet blanket, but recent history in this district – plus the only known poll on the race – doesn’t make me sanguine. I just hope we don’t wind up with another MA-05 on our hands – or worse.

Special elections are always tricky, and it’s easy to see how this one might take a turn for the worse.  While Carson was well-liked and won re-election easily, it’s hard to tell if that will translate into support for the Democratic candidate.  Hopefully, Carson will run a good campaign and will do his grandmother’s legacy justice. 

That’s some of the major campaign news happening right now.  Today is the day of the Michigan primary, so I’ll bring you the results on that as they occur.