Democrashield.com

Super Tuesday has come and gone, and it was a tremendous night for both Democrats and Republicans.

On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Obama performed well, picking up a significant amount of states and delegates.  While Clinton took the lead in major states such as Massachusetts, New York and California, Obama lead in more states overall, particularly red states.

In fact, here’s the breakdown of the states won by each candidate:

Obama: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Alaska, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota, Alabama,  Georgia

Clinton:  California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New York, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Arizona,

For Clinton, it was an even split between blue states and red states (though you can chock Arkansas up to her tenure as First Lady of that state).

For Obama, he won just as many blue states as Clinton,  but he also won more than twice as many red states.  What does that mean? Well, it shows that Obama appeals to moderates–at least moderate Democrats–more than Clinton; this crossover appeal may come to help him in the general election.

Of course, who won what states doesn’t matter as much as who won more delegates.  The delegate count varies depending on which news organization you consult, but the general consensus is that Obama came within his campaign’s self-declared goal of being within 100 delegates of from Clinton.  Of course, they wouldn’t have set that goal if they didn’t know they could meet, but Obama is definitely close to Clinton in the delegate race.

Overall, hard to say which Democrat won on Tuesday, if either of them did.  If I had to come to a conclusion, it’s that Clinton fell slightly short of expectations and Obama came out slightly ahead.  Clinton had a large lead both nationally and in a lot of Super Tuesday states, which Obama ate into slightly as the big day approached.  And while Clinton won every state she expected to win, she didn’t expand much outside that group–meanwhile, Obama didn’t manage to score a big coup in a major blue state, but he won more states, including most of the toss-ups.

On the Republican side, I was extremely surprised.  McCain performed well below expectations, while Romney–and especially Huckabee–outperformed expectations.  McCain won a lot of states overall, but he lot of red states.

Here’s the breakdown of the states won by each candidate:

McCain: Missouri,  Arizona, Oklahoma, California, New York, Delaware,  New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois,

Romney: Alaska, Montana, Colorado,  North Dakota, Utah, Massachusetts, Minnesota,

Huckabee: Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, West Virginia, Arkansas,

Only 3 out of McCain’s 9 states were red states; Romney had 2 blue states and 5 red states; Huckabee had no blue states and 5 red states. 

Does this mean McCain–like Obama–has crossover appeal that could help him in the general? I doubt it.  Keep in mind that 2008 should be a favorable year for Democrats in general, and that the voters are tired of the status quo and hungry for change.

In addition, both Obama and Clinton enjoy massive support from their party’s base–no matter who the nominee is, the vast majority of Democratic voters will line up behind them. On the other hand, McCain has a lot of detractors in the GOP, many who have already signaled that they will not back McCain even if he is the Republican nominee.

Because of this, I think it’s far more likely for Republicans, Republican-leaning independents and independents to flock to Democrats than for Democrats, Democratic-leaning independents  or independents in general to flock to Republicans.

Overall, I expected McCain to win far more states–I didn’t expect Romney to be as strong as he was, and I didn’t expect Huckabee to win anything at all.  Tuesday was an unbridled mess for the GOP, and I think it shows just how divided their party is.  While McCain is leading, there is clearly a lot of discontent with him and a strong hunger for someone else.

Of course, it’s hard to tell what will happen now that Romney is dropping out. He was the candidate of choice for much of the GOP base–voters who felt that McCain is too liberal and too unreliable and that Huckabee is a pro-big government zealot. In fact, a lot of conservative leaders–such as Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich and Ann Coulter–have stated outright  that they will not support McCain under any circumstances, instead supporting Romney as the conservative alternative.  With Romney now gone, a lot of Republicans might be left without any candidates worthy of their support.   While some Romney supporters might tepidly back McCain now, it’s unlikely they will do so with much enthusiasm or fervor.

Where do we go from here? For the Democrats, there are 2 days until Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana and the Virgin Islands vote; Maine votes on the 10th, while D.C., Maryland and Virginia vote on the 12th.

For the Republicans, there are 2 days until Kansas, Louisiana and Washington vote, while D.C., Maryland and Virginia vote on the 12th.

I’m interested on seeing how Obama and Clinton perform in a post-Super Tuesday world, and I’m interested in seeing how the GOP race will change now that Romney is gone. Will McCain pick up more support? Will Huckabee? Will a lot of disaffected Republicans just start staying home?

We’ll have to wait and see…