Democrashield.com

VOTR Day has come and gone and, as I predicted, it didn’t resolve the Democratic primary.

Last night, Clinton won Rhode Island, Ohio and the Texas primary, while Obama won Vermont and–by every indication–the Texas caucus. Clinton managed to pull off big victories in the Texas primary and Ohio, but Obama cut significantly into her initial poll leads there, finishing not too far behind the New York Senator.

What happened? Well, Clinton went strongly negative, and her attacks ate into Obama’s momentum just enough to guarantee her some victories. The Republican fearmongering-style ‘red phone’ ad may have also motivated some voters–though striking fear in voters to win their support is an abhorrent strategy, it’s become popular because it works.

In the coming weeks, expect the same levels of negativity from the Clinton campaign–it worked well enough to keep their campaign from total oblivion last night, and in all likelihood it’s a strategy they’ll stick with.

In response, I also expect the Obama camp to start drawing some contrasts with the Clinton campaign. The big test for Obama now is to see if he can recover–if he can weather further negative attacks and still come out on top. If he becomes the nominee, he’s going to face every single attack the GOP can throw at him; a key test of his political acumen will be if he’s smart and resilient enough to bounce back.

TPM has more on Obama’s strategy from here on out:

“Over the coming weeks we will join her in that argument. Was she negotiating treaties? Was she handling crisis? The answer is ‘no.’”

[...]

A senior Obama adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Obama’s team will respond to Tuesday’s results by going negative on Clinton — raising questions about her tax records and the source of donations to the Clinton presidential library, among skeletons in the Clintons’ past.

I think challenging Clinton on foreign policy will yield fertile ground. In terms of being a Senator, Clinton doesn’t really have any more experience on foreign policy than Obama. In terms of being First Lady, Clinton didn’t have a security clearance; she couldn’t sit in on NSA meetings; and she didn’t have access to the Presidential daily intelligence briefings. Personally, when Clinton talks about foreign policy experience, I’m not sure what she’s talking about.

In a portent of things to come, the Clinton campaign got caught up on her foreign policy experience in a conference call with reporters a few days ago; when Slate’s John Dickerson asked campaign officials when Sen. Clinton was tested by crisis, there was a full five seconds of silence before anyone started to answer. A full five seconds of silence as the entire brain trust of the Clinton campaign couldn’t think of a single time when Clinton was tested by a foreign policy crisis. (After the silence, communications head Mark Penn gave a standard non-answer with no specifics).

In terms of questions about Clinton’s unreleased tax returns (Obama released his nearly a year ago) and about the Clinton Presidential Library, that’s typical campaign muckraking. The Clinton campaign has been doing the same against Obama, so turning the tables is only fair. The extent to which Clinton is trying to tie Obama to Tony Rezko is eerily similar to how hard the right tried to tie the Clintons to Whitewater figure Jim McDougal in the ’90’s; in both cases, there has been no evidence of any impropriety.

In the tradition of the Clinton campaign, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh continues to marginalize the states that Obama has won:

“People have gotten through the initial job interviews. Now they’re making a hiring decision.”

I’m sure the 34 states, 2 territories, the District of Columbia and Democrats abroad would all disagree with Sen. Bayh.

Where does all of this land Sen. Clinton? Well, TPM estimates she currently walks away from yesterday with a net gain of just 9 delegates (not including the results of the Texas caucus, which currently leans Obama). Considering she trails Obama by nearly 150 in pledged delegates, last night did very little to whittle that lead.

I still believe the candidate with the most pledged delegates will be the nominee. And no matter how you slice it, Clinton probably won’t be able to overcome Obama’s lead. Of course, if she continues winning and the Obama campaign flounders, the dynamic of this race will change drastically. But if she and Obama continue neck-and-neck, she can’t take the lead.

No matter what, the superdelegates will decide this. The question is, will they choose Clinton and defy the will of the people, or will they choose Obama in accordance with the wishes of their own party members? Only time will tell, but Clinton still has a tough, tough road ahead.

UPDATED: Michigan and Florida’s Governors are now calling for new primaries in their states–here’s their joint statement:

“The right to vote is at the very foundation of our democracy. This primary season, voters have turned out in record numbers to exercise that right, and it is reprehensible that anyone would seek to silence the voices of 5,163,271 Americans. It is intolerable that the national political parties have denied the citizens of Michigan and Florida their votes and voices at their respective national conventions.

According to the DNC and RNC, Florida and Michigan have violated party rules by moving up their primaries. Today, we each will call upon our respective state and national party chairs to resolve this matter and to ensure that the voters of Michigan and Florida are full participants in the formal selection of their parties’ nominees. We must restore the rights of the more than 5 million voters whose voices have been silenced.”