Democrashield.com


Throwing In The Towel (UPDATED)

Former Senator Norm Coleman has found himself a new job:

Last session’s senior senator from Minnesota Norm Coleman, still battling Al Franken to be seated in the Senate, has taken a paid job as a consultant to the Republican Jewish Coalition, which harshly attacked Obama last fall, its executive director, Matt Brooks, said.

Coleman will join the group as a “consultant and strategic advisor,” and will also travel the country fundraising on the group’s behalf, Brooks said.

“It’s an opportunity for him to, now that he’s got some down time on his hands, to really help us while this case is being adjudicated,” Brooks said. “He hasn’t given up at all” on retaking the Minnesota seat.

That’s not the behavior of a candidate who won his last election; it’s the behavior of a candidate who packed up his office and is moving on.

Coleman knows he lost, that much is obvious.  The question is, how long will it take him to officially give up the ghost? Now that he has endeared himself to the Republican establishment by keeping Al Franken out of the Senate–landing himself a nice right-wing welfare job in the process–how long will he keep the charade up? When will he finally let the people of Minnesota enjoy their right to full representation in the Senate?

I can’t imagine the people of Minnesota are too happy that their former Senator won’t let their duly-elected representative take office. And I can’t imagine the people of Minnesota will be very forgiving to the Republican Party in the future after this gambit is all said and done.

UPDATE: More from Nate Silver:

But what is Coleman’s angle here? Increasingly, I think this is being driven by John Cornyn and the [NRSC], and that they’ve given up on beating Franken but merely want to bloody him, casting doubt over the legitimacy of his election in order to make him a focal point for Republican angst. If this were a generic Democrat instead of Franken, in other words, I think the Republicans might already have given up. But because Franken has the potential to be a polarizing figure, there is more incentive for them to fan the flames a little bit; the recount merely provides the pretense for them to do so.

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Martin Luther King Jr.

Nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change

President-elect Barack Obama

I am happy to join with you today in what will go down in history as the greatest demonstration for freedom in the history of our nation.

Five score years ago, a great American, in whose symbolic shadow we stand today, signed the Emancipation Proclamation. This momentous decree came as a great beacon light of hope to millions of Negro slaves who had been seared in the flames of withering injustice. It came as a joyous daybreak to end the long night of their captivity.

But one hundred years later, the Negro still is not free. One hundred years later, the life of the Negro is still sadly crippled by the manacles of segregation and the chains of discrimination. One hundred years later, the Negro lives on a lonely island of poverty in the midst of a vast ocean of material prosperity. One hundred years later, the Negro is still languishing in the corners of American society and finds himself an exile in his own land. So we have come here today to dramatize a shameful condition.

In a sense we have come to our nation’s capital to cash a check. When the architects of our republic wrote the magnificent words of the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence, they were signing a promissory note to which every American was to fall heir. This note was a promise that all men, yes, black men as well as white men, would be guaranteed the unalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

It is obvious today that America has defaulted on this promissory note insofar as her citizens of color are concerned. Instead of honoring this sacred obligation, America has given the Negro people a bad check, a check which has come back marked “insufficient funds.” But we refuse to believe that the bank of justice is bankrupt. We refuse to believe that there are insufficient funds in the great vaults of opportunity of this nation. So we have come to cash this check — a check that will give us upon demand the riches of freedom and the security of justice. We have also come to this hallowed spot to remind America of the fierce urgency of now. This is no time to engage in the luxury of cooling off or to take the tranquilizing drug of gradualism. Now is the time to make real the promises of democracy. Now is the time to rise from the dark and desolate valley of segregation to the sunlit path of racial justice. Now is the time to lift our nation from the quick sands of racial injustice to the solid rock of brotherhood. Now is the time to make justice a reality for all of God’s children.

It would be fatal for the nation to overlook the urgency of the moment. This sweltering summer of the Negro’s legitimate discontent will not pass until there is an invigorating autumn of freedom and equality. Nineteen sixty-three is not an end, but a beginning. Those who hope that the Negro needed to blow off steam and will now be content will have a rude awakening if the nation returns to business as usual. There will be neither rest nor tranquility in America until the Negro is granted his citizenship rights. The whirlwinds of revolt will continue to shake the foundations of our nation until the bright day of justice emerges.

But there is something that I must say to my people who stand on the warm threshold which leads into the palace of justice. In the process of gaining our rightful place we must not be guilty of wrongful deeds. Let us not seek to satisfy our thirst for freedom by drinking from the cup of bitterness and hatred.

We must forever conduct our struggle on the high plane of dignity and discipline. We must not allow our creative protest to degenerate into physical violence. Again and again we must rise to the majestic heights of meeting physical force with soul force. The marvelous new militancy which has engulfed the Negro community must not lead us to a distrust of all white people, for many of our white brothers, as evidenced by their presence here today, have come to realize that their destiny is tied up with our destiny. They have come to realize that their freedom is inextricably bound to our freedom. We cannot walk alone.

As we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back. There are those who are asking the devotees of civil rights, “When will you be satisfied?” We can never be satisfied as long as the Negro is the victim of the unspeakable horrors of police brutality. We can never be satisfied, as long as our bodies, heavy with the fatigue of travel, cannot gain lodging in the motels of the highways and the hotels of the cities. We cannot be satisfied as long as the Negro’s basic mobility is from a smaller ghetto to a larger one. We can never be satisfied as long as our children are stripped of their selfhood and robbed of their dignity by signs stating “For Whites Only”. We cannot be satisfied as long as a Negro in Mississippi cannot vote and a Negro in New York believes he has nothing for which to vote. No, no, we are not satisfied, and we will not be satisfied until justice rolls down like waters and righteousness like a mighty stream.

I am not unmindful that some of you have come here out of great trials and tribulations. Some of you have come fresh from narrow jail cells. Some of you have come from areas where your quest for freedom left you battered by the storms of persecution and staggered by the winds of police brutality. You have been the veterans of creative suffering. Continue to work with the faith that unearned suffering is redemptive.

Go back to Mississippi, go back to Alabama, go back to South Carolina, go back to Georgia, go back to Louisiana, go back to the slums and ghettos of our northern cities, knowing that somehow this situation can and will be changed. Let us not wallow in the valley of despair.

I say to you today, my friends, so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the American dream.

I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: “We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal.”

I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood.

I have a dream that one day even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice.

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.

I have a dream today.

I have a dream that one day, down in Alabama, with its vicious racists, with its governor having his lips dripping with the words of interposition and nullification; one day right there in Alabama, little black boys and black girls will be able to join hands with little white boys and white girls as sisters and brothers.

I have a dream today.

I have a dream that one day every valley shall be exalted, every hill and mountain shall be made low, the rough places will be made plain, and the crooked places will be made straight, and the glory of the Lord shall be revealed, and all flesh shall see it together.

This is our hope. This is the faith that I go back to the South with. With this faith we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope. With this faith we will be able to transform the jangling discords of our nation into a beautiful symphony of brotherhood. With this faith we will be able to work together, to pray together, to struggle together, to go to jail together, to stand up for freedom together, knowing that we will be free one day.

This will be the day when all of God’s children will be able to sing with a new meaning, “My country, ’tis of thee, sweet land of liberty, of thee I sing. Land where my fathers died, land of the pilgrim’s pride, from every mountainside, let freedom ring.”

And if America is to be a great nation this must become true. So let freedom ring from the prodigious hilltops of New Hampshire. Let freedom ring from the mighty mountains of New York. Let freedom ring from the heightening Alleghenies of Pennsylvania!

Let freedom ring from the snowcapped Rockies of Colorado!

Let freedom ring from the curvaceous slopes of California!

But not only that; let freedom ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia!

Let freedom ring from Lookout Mountain of Tennessee!

Let freedom ring from every hill and molehill of Mississippi. From every mountainside, let freedom ring.

And when this happens, when we allow freedom to ring, when we let it ring from every village and every hamlet, from every state and every city, we will be able to speed up that day when all of God’s children, black men and white men, Jews and Gentiles, Protestants and Catholics, will be able to join hands and sing in the words of the old Negro spiritual, “Free at last! free at last! thank God Almighty, we are free at last!”

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Mad World

Tell me again why it was a good idea to invade Iraq and ignore Darfur:

Five-Year Intelligence Assessment: Terror Threat Driven By Instability In Middle East, Africa

The terrorism threat to the United States over the next five years will be driven by instability in the Middle East and Africa, persistent challenges to border security and increasing Internet savvy, says a new intelligence assessment obtained by The Associated Press.

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks are considered the most dangerous threats that could be carried out against the U.S. But those threats are also the most unlikely because it is so difficult for al-Qaida and similar groups to acquire the materials needed to carry out such plots, according to the internal Homeland Security Threat Assessment for the years 2008-2013.

The al-Qaida terrorist network continues to focus on U.S. attack targets vulnerable to massive economic losses, casualties and political “turmoil,” the assessment said.

[...]

Long waits for immigration and more restrictive European refugee and asylum programs will cause more foreigners to try to enter the U.S. illegally. Increasing numbers of Iraqis are expected to migrate to the U.S. in the next five years; and refugees from Somalia and Sudan could increase because of conflicts in those countries, the assessment said.

Because there is a proposed cap of 12,000 refugees from Africa, officials expect more will try to enter the U.S. illegally as well. Officials predict the same scenario for refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Intelligence officials predict the pool of radical Islamists within the U.S. will increase over the next five years due partly to the ease of online recruiting means. Officials foresee “a wave of young, self-identified Muslim ‘terrorist wannabes’ who aspire to carry out violent acts.”

[Emphasis mine]

A wave of young Muslims turning to radical Islam? Where have we heard that before?

Look, this is pretty obvious–instability leads to extremism and extremism leads to terrorism. People who live in well-off, stable countries have far fewer reasons to turn to Islamic extremism then someone who lives in a corrupt, war-torn or unstable country.

Unfortunately, one of the staples of America’s foreign policy, the war in Iraq, wound up as both a massive destabilizer and a terrorist recruiting tool.  And since we were so heavily invested in Iraq, we weren’t focusing on other unstable countries  such as Sudan, Somalia, and the rapidly-disintegrating Pakistan.

In the coming years, we’re going to need a far more comprehensive foreign policy, one that promotes stability and prosperity everywhere, not just in a handful of belligerent nations.  Such rogue states will have to be dealt with, yes, but not at the expense of poor or failing states, which can turn out to be just as threatening to our national security as rogue states.

The Obama administration is going to have to keep a lot of balls in the air in order to successfully balance America’s foreign policy between standing up to states that must be kept in line and assisting those states nearing the edge of a dangerous, violent cliff.



The Lost Generation

foof

Tell me again how we’re winning the war on terror:

Across the Middle East, young people like Mr. Fawaz, angry, alienated and deprived of opportunity, have accepted Islam as an agent of change and rebellion. It is their rock ’n’ roll, their long hair and love beads. Through Islam, they defy the status quo and challenge governments seen as corrupt and incompetent.

These young people — 60 percent of those in the region are under 25 — are propelling a worldwide Islamic revival, driven by a thirst for political change and social justice. That fervor has popularized a more conservative interpretation of the faith.

[...]

The long-term implications of this are likely to complicate American foreign policy calculations, making it more costly to continue supporting governments that do not let secular or moderate religious political movements take root.

Washington will also be likely to find it harder to maintain the policy of shunning leaders of groups like the Brotherhood in Egypt, or Hamas in Gaza, or Hezbollah in Lebanon, which command tremendous public sympathy.

[...]

Indeed, as Islamist movements have swelled, governments across the Middle East have chosen both to contain and to embrace them. Many governments have aggressively moved to roll back the few democratic practices that had started to take root in their societies, and to prevent Islamists from winning power through the voting booth. That risks driving the leaders and the followers of Islamic organizations toward extremism.

At the same time, many governments have tried to appease popular Islamist fervor. Jordan recently granted a Muslim Brotherhood-aligned newspaper the right to publish daily instead of weekly; held private talks with Hamas leaders; arrested a poet, saying he had insulted Islam by using verses of the Koran in love poems; and shut down restaurants that had served alcohol during Ramadan, though they had been licensed by the state to do so.

[Emphasis mine]

We could do a lot of good fostering democracy and moderation in the Middle East.

Unfortunately, right now our policies in the Middle East are self-defeating.  Sometimes we’re fighting young Muslims (like in Iraq), other times we’re ignoring them completely (like in Iran) or we’re propping up the corrupt governments they’re fighting against (like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt, among others). All of these undermine the credibility of the western world–and western values–and leave radical Islam as one of the only means of social reform.

Conservatives love to mock liberals for wanting to address the root causes of terrorism.  Look, radicals who plot or try to carry out terrorist attacks should be captured and brought to justice, if not outright killed.  But at some point, all of those radicals made a choice to follow radical Islam.  They make a decision that radicalism was the only remedy to their problems.

If we eliminated the problems that drive people away from democracy and moderation and toward Islamic extremism, we would have to worry about far fewer terrorists down the road.

We need more than a strong military to defeat radical Islam.  Not every problem is a nail, so we should have more tools than just a hammer.  In light of the massive demographic shifts in the Middle East, we should be looking toward where these young Muslims are headed and what we can do to steer them in the right direction, lest we lose them to extremism forever.



Tolerating Intolerance (UPDATED X2)

I was going to write a post arguing that–contrary to what the Vice President-elect said–we shouldn’t reach out to people (like Rick Warren) who hold discriminatory viewpoints.

But Richard Cohen got there first:

But what we do not “hold in common” is the dehumanization of homosexuals. What we do not hold in common is the belief that gays are perverts who have chosen their sexual orientation on some sort of whim. What we do not hold in common is the exaltation of ignorance that has led and will lead to discrimination and violence.

Finally, what we do not hold in common is the categorization of a civil rights issue — the rights of gays to be treated equally — as some sort of cranky cultural difference. For that we need moral leadership, which, on this occasion, Obama has failed to provide. For some people, that’s nothing to celebrate.

Rick Warren is a famous evangelical pastor who heads a large ministry that does significant charity work. But that doesn’t change the fact that Rick Warren is also prejudiced against LGBT Americans and advocates legalized discrimination against them. His views are no better–and no different–than the views of someone who believes that blacks and whites should be segregated or that women shouldn’t be allowed to vote.

Discrimination against gays is, unfortunately, one of the only socially-acceptable forms of discrimination left in America. We shouldn’t validate people who hold such views by treating them like model citizens; we shouldn’t treat Rick Warren any differently than if he were advocating legalized discrimination against blacks or Jews.

Prejudice is prejudice, no matter who it’s aimed at–it’s not acceptable, and it shouldn’t be treated as acceptable.

UPDATE: And for people who say that I’m not respecting Pastor Warren’s first amendment rights, let me be clear: Rick Warren is entitled to believe whatever he wants and he’s entitled to say whatever he wants.

But he is not entitled to a national microphone with which to spread his beliefs. Speaking at the inauguration is a privilege, not a right, and it’s a privilege that someone with Warren’s viewpoints should not be offered.

UPDATE II: And then there’s this:

Rick Warren recorded a video yesterday, talking about the outcry over his being chosen to given the invocation at Obama’s swearing in.

[...]

In the new video, Warren accuses gays of “hate speech,” of launching “hateful attacks” against him, and he then says that gay and lesbian Americans have “Christ-ophobia,” a clear effort to mock the term “homophobia.” He goes on to explain that gays are “afraid of any Christian,” suggesting that gay and lesbian Americans – gay and lesbian Obama voters – are not Christians. He then goes on to call gays criticizing him “evil.” All this from a man who compared gay marriage to incest and pedophilia, and who explicitly bans “unrepentant gays” from his church membership.

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The Coming Civil War (UPDATED)
October 28, 2008, 4:16 PM
Filed under: 2008 Election, Conservatives, Faith, Governors, Senate | Tags: , , ,

For decades, the Republican Party has been sustained by an alliance between business conservatives and social conservatives. The former have provided funding and ideas while the latter have provided the manpower and votes.

Recently, though, the alliance has become strained. The Republican Party has always been the party of big business—whenever the Republicans took power, the corporate cons got their way first. And even though the social conservatives labored for years to elect Republicans, they ended up with little to show for it—gay marriage is legal in three states, civil unions are expanding, abortion is still legal, etc.

For six years, the GOP controlled all three branches of the federal government. And while corporate tax cuts, tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation all happened, the social conservative agenda barely got touched (except for a few gay marriage bans in states where gay marriage was already illegal). In 2006, after only a few years in power, the Republicans lost Congress in the wake of corruption and sex scandals.

McCain has always been more of a corporate con than a social conservative–he isn’t trusted by the religious right because he isn’t socially conservative enough. To shore up that particular weak spot, he chose Sarah Palin as his running mate; the McCain-Palin ticket was designed to be a fusion ticket representing both major GOP factions.

But as the McCain-Palin ticket heads to defeat, there are signs that the cracks in the GOP coalition may blow up into a full-blown civil war, and McCain and Palin will be the proxies through which the civil war will be waged.  Right now, Palin’s camp is saying that McCain mismanaged her, fed her talking points and didn’t let her be herself, while McCain’s camp is saying Palin was unprepared, went off-message and came off as a ‘whack job.’

As it stands, both factions have been equally discredited—the financial crisis ruined the corporate cons while the social conservatives are failing to do their duty and out-organize the Democrats. Still, both sides will claim to be the heir to Reaganism, since Reaganism was a combination of both factions’ philosophies.

Who will win? That’s impossible to tell, at least right now. But no matter what, the GOP will have a major bloodletting, which will be entirely deserved—conservatives created this monster; let them live with the consequences.

UPDATED: See this:

Rift Cracks ‘Demoralized’ McCain Campaign–McCain Staffers Blame Palin’s Lack of Readiness; Palin Loyalists Blame Over-Managing By McCain

And this:

Allies of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin are now trying to throw McCain aide Nicolle Wallace under the proverbial bus, and as they do so those in McCain’s circle are wary of the impact on Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., himself.

And this:

Top McCain Aides: ‘Palin Simply Knew Nothing About National And International Issues’

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Fear ‘N Smear

Be afraid? Of THIS guy? Um, why?

Only 31 days of this nonsense left:

Palin says Obama ‘palling around’ with terrorists

Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin on Saturday accused Democrat Barack Obama of “palling around with terrorists” because of an association with a former ’60s radical, stepping up an effort to portray Obama as unacceptable to American voters.

Palin’s reference was to Bill Ayers, one of the founders of the group the Weather Underground. Its members took credit for bombings, including nonfatal explosions at the Pentagon and U.S. Capitol, during the Vietnam War era. Obama, who was a child when the group was active, has denounced Ayers’ radical views and activities.

Yeah, guys, because those attacks worked really well when they first debuted 8 months ago, right? They were so shocking and destructive that they cost Obama the Democratic Primary, right? I mean, you’re not just dredging up the worst of the worst from the primaries because you have only one month left to go and no good talking points? Right?

But hey, if we’re going to talk about past associations, let’s talk about them.  How about John McCain’s friendship with Charles Keating? And then we can talk about his inappropriately-close relationship with a telecommunications lobbyist whose company had business before McCain’s Senate committee.  And then we can talk about his economic advisor, Phil Gramm, who first helped create our economic crisis and then turned around and called America a ‘nation of whiners‘ when everything started falling apart. And hey, wasn’t Sarah Palin cozy with the radical, secessionist Alaskan Independence Party? Cozy enough to deliver a video address their national convention? And wasn’t her husband an actual registered member of the party for seven years?

And if they want to talk about pastors, let’s talk about pastors.  How about John Hagee, whose endorsement John McCain actively sought? John Hagee, who wants a war with Iran to bring about the end times? John Hagee, who called the Catholic church ‘the great whore‘? And what about Sarah Palin’s pastor?  You know, the guy who turned his pulpit over to Jews for Jesus founder David Brickner, who then proclaimed that terrorist attacks on Israelites was God’s punishment for Jews not embracing Jesus? Do they really want to go down this road?

Or, here’s a novel idea–how about we stop with the smears and the personal attacks? How about we actually put ‘Country First’ and focus on the major challenges our country is facing? These are serious times that call for serious leadership; the same old politics-as-usual game of fear ‘n smear won’t work this time around.

I mean, McCain and Palin are trying to scare people.  But people are already scared–scared they’re going to lose their jobs, scared they’re going to lose their retirements, scared they’re going to lose their houses, scared they’re going to lose their health care, scared they won’t be able to pay the bills or send their kids off to college.  We’re worried, but Barack Obama and Joe Biden are going out there every day and showing that we don’t have to be afraid because they know how to solve our country’s financial crisis. They’re the ones looking Presidential and showing real leadership, showing the steadiness and resolve we’ve been hungering for these past eight years.

On the other hand, John McCain and Sarah Palin are dodging every single substantive issue, instead throwing out attacks in the desperate hope that everyone will suddenly stop caring about their houses and jobs and pensions and retirements and bills and kids and suddenly start caring about some guy named Bill Ayers and whatever he did or didn’t do thirty years ago.

John McCain and Sarah Palin are going to realize–far too late–that the American people want to vote for solutions, not just the lesser of two evils. This time around, the GOP won’t succeed in scaring us all into voting for them–they did that back in 2004 and we’ve spent the past four years paying for it. We won’t let it happen again.



Worship

So conservatives are all a-twitter over a YouTube video showing a group of children out in California singing a pro-Obama song.

Big deal, right? With everything going on in our country right now, this is what they’re going to waste their time on?

Of course.

“Cult!” they’re crying. “Indoctrination! North Korea! Soviet Union! How dare children be used that way! How dare children be brainwa-”

Hey wait, what’s this?

Whoops.

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Michelle Obama At The DNC

Here is the full text of Michelle Obama’s speech in Denver last night:

As you might imagine, for Barack, running for President is nothing compared to that first game of basketball with my brother Craig.

I can’t tell you how much it means to have Craig and my mom here tonight. Like Craig, I can feel my dad looking down on us, just as I’ve felt his presence in every grace-filled moment of my life.

At six-foot-six, I’ve often felt like Craig was looking down on me too…literally. But the truth is, both when we were kids and today, he wasn’t looking down on me – he was watching over me.

And he’s been there for me every step of the way since that clear February day 19 months ago, when – with little more than our faith in each other and a hunger for change – we joined my husband, Barack Obama, on the improbable journey that’s brought us to this moment.

But each of us also comes here tonight by way of our own improbable journey.

I come here tonight as a sister, blessed with a brother who is my mentor, my protector and my lifelong friend.

I come here as a wife who loves my husband and believes he will be an extraordinary president.

I come here as a Mom whose girls are the heart of my heart and the center of my world – they’re the first thing I think about when I wake up in the morning, and the last thing I think about when I go to bed at night. Their future – and all our children’s future – is my stake in this election.

And I come here as a daughter – raised on the South Side of Chicago by a father who was a blue collar city worker, and a mother who stayed at home with my brother and me. My mother’s love has always been a sustaining force for our family, and one of my greatest joys is seeing her integrity, her compassion, and her intelligence reflected in my own daughters.

My Dad was our rock. Although he was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis in his early thirties, he was our provider, our champion, our hero. As he got sicker, it got harder for him to walk, it took him longer to get dressed in the morning. But if he was in pain, he never let on. He never stopped smiling and laughing – even while struggling to button his shirt, even while using two canes to get himself across the room to give my Mom a kiss. He just woke up a little earlier, and worked a little harder.

He and my mom poured everything they had into me and Craig. It was the greatest gift a child can receive: never doubting for a single minute that you’re loved, and cherished, and have a place in this world. And thanks to their faith and hard work, we both were able to go on to college. So I know firsthand from their lives – and mine – that the American Dream endures.

And you know, what struck me when I first met Barack was that even though he had this funny name, even though he’d grown up all the way across the continent in Hawaii, his family was so much like mine. He was raised by grandparents who were working class folks just like my parents, and by a single mother who struggled to pay the bills just like we did. Like my family, they scrimped and saved so that he could have opportunities they never had themselves. And Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: that you work hard for what you want in life; that your word is your bond and you do what you say you’re going to do; that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don’t know them, and even if you don’t agree with them.

And Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values, and pass them on to the next generation. Because we want our children – and all children in this nation – to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work for them.

And as our friendship grew, and I learned more about Barack, he introduced me to the work he’d done when he first moved to Chicago after college. Instead of heading to Wall Street, Barack had gone to work in neighborhoods devastated when steel plants shut down, and jobs dried up. And he’d been invited back to speak to people from those neighborhoods about how to rebuild their community.

The people gathered together that day were ordinary folks doing the best they could to build a good life. They were parents living paycheck to paycheck; grandparents trying to get by on a fixed income; men frustrated that they couldn’t support their families after their jobs disappeared. Those folks weren’t asking for a handout or a shortcut. They were ready to work – they wanted to contribute. They believed – like you and I believe – that America should be a place where you can make it if you try.

Barack stood up that day, and spoke words that have stayed with me ever since. He talked about “The world as it is” and “The world as it should be.” And he said that all too often, we accept the distance between the two, and settle for the world as it is – even when it doesn’t reflect our values and aspirations. But he reminded us that we know what our world should look like. We know what fairness and justice and opportunity look like. And he urged us to believe in ourselves – to find the strength within ourselves to strive for the world as it should be. And isn’t that the great American story?

It’s the story of men and women gathered in churches and union halls, in town squares and high school gyms – people who stood up and marched and risked everything they had – refusing to settle, determined to mold our future into the shape of our ideals.

It is because of their will and determination that this week, we celebrate two anniversaries: the 88th anniversary of women winning the right to vote, and the 45th anniversary of that hot summer day when Dr. King lifted our sights and our hearts with his dream for our nation.

I stand here today at the crosscurrents of that history – knowing that my piece of the American Dream is a blessing hard won by those who came before me. All of them driven by the same conviction that drove my dad to get up an hour early each day to painstakingly dress himself for work. The same conviction that drives the men and women I’ve met all across this country:

People who work the day shift, kiss their kids goodnight, and head out for the night shift – without disappointment, without regret – that goodnight kiss a reminder of everything they’re working for.

The military families who say grace each night with an empty seat at the table. The servicemen and women who love this country so much, they leave those they love most to defend it.

The young people across America serving our communities – teaching children, cleaning up neighborhoods, caring for the least among us each and every day.

People like Hillary Clinton, who put those 18 million cracks in the glass ceiling, so that our daughters – and sons – can dream a little bigger and aim a little higher.

People like Joe Biden, who’s never forgotten where he came from, and never stopped fighting for folks who work long hours and face long odds and need someone on their side again.

All of us driven by a simple belief that the world as it is just won’t do – that we have an obligation to fight for the world as it should be.

That is the thread that connects our hearts. That is the thread that runs through my journey and Barack’s journey and so many other improbable journeys that have brought us here tonight, where the current of history meets this new tide of hope.

That is why I love this country.

And in my own life, in my own small way, I’ve tried to give back to this country that has given me so much. That’s why I left a job at a law firm for a career in public service, working to empower young people to volunteer in their communities. Because I believe that each of us – no matter what our age or background or walk of life – each of us has something to contribute to the life of this nation.

It’s a belief Barack shares – a belief at the heart of his life’s work.

It’s what he did all those years ago, on the streets of Chicago, setting up job training to get people back to work and afterschool programs to keep kids safe – working block by block to help people lift up their families.

It’s what he did in the Illinois Senate, moving people from welfare to jobs, passing tax cuts for hard working families, and making sure women get equal pay for equal work.

It’s what he’s done in the United States Senate, fighting to ensure the men and women who serve this country are welcomed home not just with medals and parades, but with good jobs and benefits and health care – including mental health care.

That’s why he’s running – to end the war in Iraq responsibly, to build an economy that lifts every family, to make health care available for every American, and to make sure every child in this nation gets a world class education all the way from preschool to college. That’s what Barack Obama will do as President of the United States of America.

He’ll achieve these goals the same way he always has – by bringing us together and reminding us how much we share and how alike we really are. You see, Barack doesn’t care where you’re from, or what your background is, or what party – if any – you belong to. That’s not how he sees the world. He knows that thread that connects us – our belief in America’s promise, our commitment to our children’s future – is strong enough to hold us together as one nation even when we disagree.

It was strong enough to bring hope to those neighborhoods in Chicago.

It was strong enough to bring hope to the mother he met worried about her child in Iraq; hope to the man who’s unemployed, but can’t afford gas to find a job; hope to the student working nights to pay for her sister’s health care, sleeping just a few hours a day.

And it was strong enough to bring hope to people who came out on a cold Iowa night and became the first voices in this chorus for change that’s been echoed by millions of Americans from every corner of this nation.

Millions of Americans who know that Barack understands their dreams; that Barack will fight for people like them; and that Barack will finally bring the change we need.

And in the end, after all that’s happened these past 19 months, the Barack Obama I know today is the same man I fell in love with 19 years ago. He’s the same man who drove me and our new baby daughter home from the hospital ten years ago this summer, inching along at a snail’s pace, peering anxiously at us in the rearview mirror, feeling the whole weight of her future in his hands, determined to give her everything he’d struggled so hard for himself, determined to give her what he never had: the affirming embrace of a father’s love.

And as I tuck that little girl and her little sister into bed at night, I think about how one day, they’ll have families of their own. And one day, they – and your sons and daughters – will tell their own children about what we did together in this election. They’ll tell them how this time, we listened to our hopes, instead of our fears. How this time, we decided to stop doubting and to start dreaming. How this time, in this great country – where a girl from the South Side of Chicago can go to college and law school, and the son of a single mother from Hawaii can go all the way to the White House – we committed ourselves to building the world as it should be.

So tonight, in honor of my father’s memory and my daughters’ future – out of gratitude to those whose triumphs we mark this week, and those whose everyday sacrifices have brought us to this moment – let us devote ourselves to finishing their work; let us work together to fulfill their hopes; and let us stand together to elect Barack Obama President of the United States of America.

Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America.

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Obama’s Prayer

Today’s Electoral Map (From FiveThirtyEight): Obama 298.5 EV ; McCain 239.5 EV

This is the prayer Barack Obama left at Jerusalem’s Western Wall during his trip to the Middle East last week:

Lord– Protect my family and me. Forgive me my sins, and help me guard against pride and despair. Give me the wisdom to do what is right and just. And make me an instrument of your will.

If only our current leaders had prayed for protection against pride, perhaps we’d be living in a better country right now.

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Primary Colors: March 19, 2008

It’s been a busy couple of days; let’s get to it.

Pennsylvania votes on April 22nd–according to Pollster, the Keystone State gives Clinton a 51.2% to 37.7% lead. After that, North Carolina and Indiana vote on May 6th; both of those states give Obama substantial leads (7.3% in NC and 15% in IN).

The mood must be tense in the Clinton camp right now, as plans to hold new primaries in Florida and Michigan–whose delegations were removed after they moved their primaries ahead of 2/5, in violation of DNC rules–have fallen apart.

First Florida:

After weeks of negotiations, the Florida Democratic Party said Monday it will not hold a second primary in the state.

[...]

“We researched every potential alternative process — from caucuses to county conventions to mail-in elections — but no plan could come anywhere close to being viable in Florida,” said state party chairwoman Karen Thurman in an e-mail sent to Florida Democrats late Monday afternoon.

And then Michigan:

The subscription-only MIRS service issued a release just before noon today that Senate Democrats “emerged from a closed-door caucus this morning and proclaimed that a fledging idea floated by top Michigan Democrats to create a special June 3 primary election is all but dead.”

The Clinton camp had hoped to use late contests in FL and MI to both close some ground with Sen. Obama and to generate good press going into the Democratic National Convention; with those re-vote plans tabled, the Clinton campaign will face an even steeper uphill climb to the Democratic nomination.

Another blow to Clinton occurred just few days ago, when Obama put to rest the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright by giving what is already being called a speech for the history books; Obama wrote it over the span of two days, and he shared it with only a handful of advisers before it was delivered.

And now the National Archives have released Sen. Clinton’s record as First Lady, which are already being poured over by the media–unfortunately for her, the records are already dredging up memories of the Clinton scandals of the 90’s.

Political Insider has more:

An early example from ABC News: “Hillary Clinton spent the night in the White House on the day her husband had oral sex with Monica Lewinsky, and may have actually been there when it happened, according to records of her schedule released today by the National Archives.”

Another example: “In December, 2000, when both of Hillary Clinton’s brothers were involved in trying to broker pardon arrangements for associates, several days of documents show only a long list of ‘private meetings’ at the White House.”

The other big danger is that the schedules will shed some light on some of Clinton’s claims of “35 years of experience,” such as this headline from The Guardian: “Clinton a long way from the White House at key foreign policy moments.”

Or this from the AP: “She was also involved in helping her husband win congressional approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement, a deal she now criticizes and says she would try to change.”

In the coming days, expect the conflict over Rev. Wright to fade away and the controversy over Clinton’s White House records to ramp up.

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Obama Comes Out Swinging (UPDATED)

Some controversy has been brewing over statements made by Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the pastor at Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago, where Barack Obama is a parishoner.

In order to cut this off at the pass, Obama has written a column at The Huffington Post explaining his feelings on this:

The pastor of my church, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who recently preached his last sermon and is in the process of retiring, has touched off a firestorm over the last few days. He’s drawn attention as the result of some inflammatory and appalling remarks he made about our country, our politics, and my political opponents.Let me say at the outset that I vehemently disagree and strongly condemn the statements that have been the subject of this controversy. I categorically denounce any statement that disparages our great country or serves to divide us from our allies. I also believe that words that degrade individuals have no place in our public dialogue, whether it’s on the campaign stump or in the pulpit. In sum, I reject outright the statements by Rev. Wright that are at issue.

Because these particular statements by Rev. Wright are so contrary to my own life and beliefs, a number of people have legitimately raised questions about the nature of my relationship with Rev. Wright and my membership in the church. Let me therefore provide some context.

As I have written about in my books, I first joined Trinity United Church of Christ nearly twenty years ago. I knew Rev. Wright as someone who served this nation with honor as a United States Marine, as a respected biblical scholar, and as someone who taught or lectured at seminaries across the country, from Union Theological Seminary to the University of Chicago. He also led a diverse congregation that was and still is a pillar of the South Side and the entire city of Chicago. It’s a congregation that does not merely preach social justice but acts it out each day, through ministries ranging from housing the homeless to reaching out to those with HIV/AIDS.

Most importantly, Rev. Wright preached the gospel of Jesus, a gospel on which I base my life. In other words, he has never been my political advisor; he’s been my pastor. And the sermons I heard him preach always related to our obligation to love God and one another, to work on behalf of the poor, and to seek justice at every turn.

The statements that Rev. Wright made that are the cause of this controversy were not statements I personally heard him preach while I sat in the pews of Trinity or heard him utter in private conversation. When these statements first came to my attention, it was at the beginning of my presidential campaign. I made it clear at the time that I strongly condemned his comments. But because Rev. Wright was on the verge of retirement, and because of my strong links to the Trinity faith community, where I married my wife and where my daughters were baptized, I did not think it appropriate to leave the church.

Let me repeat what I’ve said earlier. All of the statements that have been the subject of controversy are ones that I vehemently condemn. They in no way reflect my attitudes and directly contradict my profound love for this country.

With Rev. Wright’s retirement and the ascension of my new pastor, Rev. Otis Moss, III, Michelle and I look forward to continuing a relationship with a church that has done so much good. And while Rev. Wright’s statements have pained and angered me, I believe that Americans will judge me not on the basis of what someone else said, but on the basis of who I am and what I believe in; on my values, judgment and experience to be President of the United States.

The entire ’scandal’ is nonsense. The fact that the pastor at Obama’s church said some controversial things has no impact on Obama’s ability to be President.  Nobody’s required to agree with everything their pastor says–if your pastor says something you disagree with, you just acknowledge that you have a difference of opinion and move on. It’s not a big deal.

This phony ’scandal’ reeks of desperation–Obama’s opponents don’t have anything legitimate to throw at him, so they pull together nonsense ’scandals’ like this and try to tar him with it.

In the end, though, none of these manufactured scandals change the fact that Barack Obama has the skills and the judgment to be the next President of the United States.

UPDATE: Scout Finch at Daily Kos brings up two good points:

We have now seen more sermons from Barack Obama’s minister in 48 hours than we ever did of Mike Huckabee —- and Mike Huckabee was a presidential candidate for 14 long months. Why is it acceptable to scour every last sermon given by Wright, but only weeks ago we weren’t allowed to see or read Mike Huckabee’s sermons?  In fact, not only was it totally ignored by the traditional media, but the few times the question of Huckabee’s sermons was raised, it was brushed aside as inappropriate.

Why the hypocrisy? After all, Mike Huckabee was an evangelical Southern Baptist minister who’s entire campaign was based on the fact that he was the Christian candidate. Are we to believe that he didn’t rail against the US government over abortion in previous sermons? Or homosexuality?  We know what he had to say about AIDS victims.

[...]

As several commenters have pointed out, whenever the subject of Mitt Romney’s religion came up – it was portrayed as essentially un-American to even whisper about Romney’s Mormonism.  I agree that it has no place in politics, but let’s make sure this is going both ways.



Numbers, Dollars & Spin

Today was a big day in politics, so let’s get down to it.

NUMBERS:

The latest Rassmussen poll shows Clinton and Obama virtually tied in Ohio–Clinton now has 47% to Obama’s 45%. In addition, Reuters/Zogby show Obama widening his lead over Clinton in Texas, now carrying 48% to her 42%. ARG shows Clinton leading in Ohio, 50% to 45%, but trailing in Texas, 51% to 44%.

It’s clear that Obama is closing the gap, and by every indication he seems to be leading in Texas and trailing by a relatively small margin in Ohio. With just 4 days left until VOTR Day, Clinton is going to have to start making up ground–and fast–lest she walk away the loser.

DOLLARS:

It’s the last day of February, and the campaigns are releasing their monthly fundraising statistics.

Hillary Clinton raised $35 million in February, a considerable haul nearly equal to what Obama raised in January.

Obama’s exact fundraising numbers are unknown–they haven’t been announced yet–but his campaign advisers have said that it will be “considerably more” than $35 million.

And John McCain trails both Democrats, picking up a pathetic $12 million in February. After his victory on February 5th, it was clear that he would be the Republican nominee–after that, the floodgates were supposed to open up and he was supposed to start raking in the cash. Instead, it looks like the deep pockets and big wallets in the GOP haven’t opened up to him yet–possibly because of his shaky support among conservatives or his numerous scandals. Still, if he can’t start tapping into bigger reserves of cash–and fast–he’s going to get buried by the Democratic nominee.

Of course, even raising money at this point might be a problem for McCain–until the FEC releases him from public financing, he’s still technically in the system, and that means he can only raise and spend $54 million until this summer. Since his last FEC report shows him with over $53 million, it’s imperative for McCain to release his February expenditures as soon as possible–if he violated the $54 million, McCain’s campaign could very well end up in court.

SPIN:

In the wake of their flagging poll numbers, the Clinton campaign has released some of the most ridiculous spin I’ve ever read:

Clinton Campaign Chief Strategist Mark Penn today released a memo to the media, though, with the subject, “Obama Must-Wins.”

“If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there’s a problem,” Penn writes. And not only does he have to win, they have to be “decisive,” according to the memo.

“Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all of the resources and effort he is bringing to bear, the message will be clear,” Penn continues, “Democrats, the majority of whom have favored Hillary in the primary contests held to date, have their doubts about Senator Obama and are having second thoughts about him as a prospective standard-bearer.”

Obama has more delegates. Obama has won more states. Obama has raised more money. Obama has the support of a majority of Democrats nationwide. But if he fails to win every single state on VOTR Day, then Clinton should be the nominee?

This doesn’t make any sense. It’s well known that if the Clinton camp doesn’t win at least Ohio and Texas on Tuesday, her candidacy’s basically over–and, in fact, Clinton campaign surrogates like James Carville and Bill Clinton have already said as much. TX and OH are her campaign’s self-declared firewall, and have been for weeks. But now, when it’s likely that they’re going to fall short of their goal, they declare that Obama has to win every single state? What kind of sense does that make?

And as I wrote about earlier today, the Clinton camp is trying to muck up Texas by filing a lawsuit over the Lone Star State’s delegate selection rules. Glenn Smith at Burnt Orange Report–a great Texas-based blog–tells us why:

There is method to the Clinton campaign’s mad preemptive sword rattling over the Texas primary/caucus. They want to delay and disrupt the reporting of the delegate count. They hope that if they win the popular vote, they can avoid, at least for one news cycle, news reports that even if they do so they will very likely lose the delegate fight in Texas and fall further behind Obama in the national delegate contest.

This is not speculation. This has been the subject under discussion. While I have not been part of that discussion, plenty of sources last night and this morning confirmed this as the core of the dispute.

It is widely assumed that Obama’s organizational advantage will achieve in the caucus portion of the Texas election just what it has achieved in earlier caucuses: a significant victory in delegates. There are 67 delegates at stake in those caucuses. The Clinton campaign would like to delay the reporting of the caucus results, and that is why they have continually “reserved the right to challenge” Texas law and Democratic party procedures.

Throw the Texas delegate results in dispute, and win or lose the popular vote, they will have advanced their case that the contest remains close and should go all the way to the convention if necessary.

[...]

The Clinton campaign strategy is to justify taking the fight beyond Texas even if they fall further behind Obama in the national delegate count. To do that, they must cast doubt over the fate of the 67 delegates that will be chosen at the caucus level. Hence, their tough positioning in phone calls with Texas Democratic Party officials and others involved in the primary here.

The Texas rules have been in effect for decades. Bill Clinton ran twice under these rules. They are no surprise to anyone, and both campaigns know they have to play by the same rules. There is little point to raising concerns before the election — except one campaign finds itself running a very unique kind of effort. To remain viable, the results of the caucus in Texas must be thrown into doubt. Almost any legal challenge will do. The Clinton narrative can be maintained– but only if their falling further behind in delegates is not reported or is at the least cast into doubt for a news cycle, or two or three news cycles.

If Clinton loses Texas, it’s going to be over for her. The classy thing to do would be to drop out, let Obama assume the mantle as the nominee and focus on salvaging her political career. If her campaign continues to rely on ridiculous spin and tries to solder on, despite falling short of goals they themselves set, then there’s going to be a huge outcry (as well as significant damage to Clinton’s overall political career). We will not have a brokered convention, and I certainly hope the Clinton camp won’t force us any further down that road than we need to go.

Today, Obama picked up the support of West Virginia Senator Jay Rockefeller today; that makes an even dozen sitting Senators in the Obama camp, while Clinton has the support of 13 Senate colleagues.

And in response to the John Hagee flap–where John McCain accepted the support of radical, bigoted preacher John Hagee–McCain released this tepid statement:

“Yesterday, Pastor John Hagee endorsed my candidacy for president in San Antonio, Texas. However, in no way did I intend for his endorsement to suggest that I in turn agree with all of Pastor Hagee’s views, which I obviously do not.

“I am hopeful that Catholics, Protestants and all people of faith who share my vision for the future of America will respond to our message of defending innocent life, traditional marriage, and compassion for the most vulnerable in our society.”

In other words, McCain will be glad to take the support of Hagee and his extremist followers, as long as he also gets to distance himself from Hagee’s more radical statements. Too bad he can’t have it both ways–either he sides with Hagee and his bigotry, or he denounces him and rejects his support.

Finally, the Roadblock Republicans are hard at work blocking funds to help communities struggling with the mortgage crisis as well as an independent Congressional ethics panel. They’re going to need a lot of spin to explain these decisions away before November.

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The Kneecapping Of John McCain

Cross-posted at Daily Kos 

Recently, James Dobson–Christian conservative and head of the extremist group Focus on the Family–endorsed Mike Huckabee, saying that he would never vote for John McCain. At the Conservative Political Action Conference, the GOP rank-and-file booed McCain during his speech. On show after show, right-wing talking head Rush Limbaugh trashes McCain. Republican stormtrooper Ann Coulter said she would rather vote for Hillary Clinton than John McCain. Disgraced former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says the GOP needs to “shrug off McCain.” Disgraced former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay refused to say he’d vote for McCain, even if it would “keep the Clintons out of the White House.”

Why are conservatives kneecapping McCain? While he does have a long record of making enemies within the Republican Party, he has an extremely conservative voting record and he sides with the GOP more often than not. He’s the presumptive Republican nominee–in all likelihood, he’ll be carrying the Republican banner this election. So why would they hurt their own party by attacking their Presidential nominee right out of the gate?

Well, the people kneecapping McCain aren’t just Republicans–they’re movement conservatives. They don’t care about winning the next election, they care about advancing conservative ideas. The movementarians know that their power and influence comes from being the leaders of the conservative movement, and they’ll fight to advance that movement–at any cost.Though McCain’s a conservative, he’s not a movement conservative–he’s an establishmentarian who, despite his pandering, doesn’t always subscribe to the movement’s orthodoxy. He’s willing to contradict them, to throw them under the bus, to fall short of the extreme partisanship demanded by the likes of Limbaugh and DeLay. That’s not to say he doesn’t ever do those things–he just doesn’t do them enough.

McCain will do almost anything to get ahead. In this post-Bush world–where conservative ideas are nowhere near as popular as they once were–McCain wouldn’t be above throwing the conservative movement under the bus, even going as far as to work with some Democrats now and again (instead of shutting them out in true conservative fashion).

So the conservative movement is kneecapping McCain because they don’t care if he loses. In fact, it would be better for them if he lost. Why?
First–as soon as a Democratic President is inaugurated–the conservatives will lay all the country’s problems at his/her feet. They’ll blame him/her for all the problems he/she would inherit from the Bush administration, browbeating him/her for failing solve those problems quickly or completely enough. With both a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President, the conservative movement will be able to spend the next 4 years doing what they do best–complaining and attacking Democrats. It would be like the Clinton years all over again.

Second, if McCain were to lose the conservative movement will claim victory. They’ll spend the next 4 years browbeating Republicans, telling them that they lost because they didn’t nominate a “true conservative.” Come 2012, the movementarians will push their extremist candidate of choice on the voters, pointing to the failed McCain candidacy as proof that Republican voters better listen to them–or else.

Third, the movementarians aren’t stupid; they see the writing on the wall. They see massive Democratic fundraising and pitiful Republican fundraising. They see huge turnout on the Democratic side and tepid interest on the Republican side. They see two Democratic candidates with thriving movements and one Republican candidate with lukewarm support and a lagging campaign. They know that 2008 is going to be an uphill battle for the Republican Party, and that it’s becoming increasingly unlikely they can win the next election.

So, as Digby puts it:

Do you get the feeling that the conservatives are gaming this thing? I knew that you would.

They know they are going to lose. They will blame the loss on the fact that McCain wasn’t a real conservative (just like Bush.) They know when to fall back and regroup. They’re already playing for the next election.

Everybody sing: Conservatism can never fail, it can only be failed.

The movementarians are throwing McCain under the bus–before he can throw them under the bus–for the sake of teir movement. Sure, they’ll be locked out of government for a few years–possibly a good number of years–but they and their ideas will live on to fight another day. They’re trying to make McCain’s loss not a failure of Republicanism or conservatism, but a failure of moderation. In 2012, they’ll be back in full force, demanding that the GOP voters pay fealty to their extremist, cutthroat politics once again.

The conservative movement is dying, and the movementarians are desperately trying to stop the bleeding. Will their gamble pay off? Will they be successful? Or will their contribution to a John McCain loss usher in a new Democratic coalition that could lock conservatives out of government for years to come? Only time will tell.

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Super Tuesday (UPDATED)

Today is Super Tuesday, the biggest single day in American primary election history.

We start off today with some wildly divergent polls on the Democratic side, which show both Clinton and Obama with significant leads in California:

Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby gives Obama a 13 point lead:

In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Survey USA has Clinton leading by 10 points:

24 hours till votes are counted in the California Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend-off a late charge from Barack Obama, 52% Clinton, 42% Obama, according to SurveyUSA’s 13th and final pre-primary tracking poll. Obama leads among men. Clinton leads among women. 44-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads among whites. Obama leads among blacks. 53-point Race Gap. Among younger voters, Clinton leads by 3. Among older voters, Clinton leads by 18. In greater San Francisco, the contest is tied. In the Central Valley, Clinton leads by 7. In greater Los Angeles, Clinton leads by 15. In the Inland Empire, Clinton leads by 16.

Survey USA’s poll has a margin of error of +/-3.4%

Of course, the truth might be somewhere in the middle:

One of these polling outfits has the wrong model; either Clinton is up by 10 percent, or Obama is up by 13 percent, or maybe Rasmussen, which calls it a 45-44 lead by Obama with 5 percent undecided, 5 percent saying there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and 19% say they might change, is right.

A lot of people have been speculating how CA’s early voting will affect the results. The conventional wisdom is that, even though Obama has been catching up to Clinton, most early votes were cast when she was still ahead. Personally, I don’t think it will give Clinton a large margin–I doubt people voted for Clinton, changed their minds, but told pollsters they were supporting Obama. I think the CW that Clinton has to lead in early voting since a lot of those votes were cast when she was leading is flawed, since it’s just an assumption that isn’t based on any actual votes cast.

In this regard, the polls are also divided:

SurveyUSA gives those to Hillary by a wide margin, while the widely respected Field Poll registered a one-point edge to … Obama. In short, there simply isn’t any real way to know right now if any of these polls are accurately predicting the outcome.

In considering all of these polls, something worth looking at is this chart showing the average error rate of major polling organizations.

In the end, though, who wins the popular vote won’t be as important as how many delegates each candidate walks away with–and since California awards their delegates proportionally, unless either candidate wins with a massive margin of victory, there won’t be a huge difference in how many delegates each candidates walk away with.

In addition, though one candidate may win a handful of big states, there are also a bunch of small states voting today–states that will be more competitive in the general election than, say, California or New York. To some extent, how those states go may be a better indicator of Democratic electability than the results in large blue states:

But primary victories there are not necessarily indicative of strength in the general election.

After all, losing Democratic nominees routinely win New York and California by wide margins.

In reality, the best indicators of the Democrats’ general election prospects are tucked away in the remaining 18 states, each of which has fewer than 100 delegates a pop.

The true potential of Clinton’s and Obama’s candidacies faces the most consequential test in key swing states such as Missouri, Colorado and Arizona….

Bottom line: Tuesday’s “delegate winner” could actually be the less electable candidate, if the winner’s support comes from the coasts.

No matter what, it’s clear that the Democratic contest will go far beyond today–a situation that could benefit Obama, considering his massive financial advantage over Clinton:

Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said that the campaign had raised “about $13 million, $13.5 million” last month, according to the Washington Post.

In contrast, Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign announced last week that it had raised $32 million in the month of January.

For the Republicans, tonight could either be a big win for John McCain or a surprise resurgence for Mitt Romney. I’d consider the former more likely than the latter, considering McCain’s leads both nationally and in a number of key Super Tuesday states.

Since a lot of the GOP’s delegate-heavy states–such as New York, California and Georgia–are winner-take-all, a strong showing in a few of them could easily net McCain a huge amount of delegates.

Of course, the McCain camp has their worries:

McCain’s people fear he may lose the popular vote in California to Romney — even if they haul in the same number of CA delegates — and that the Super Tuesday story will therefore NOT be the crowning of McCain but rather his failure to put away the game, a failure born of his fractious and sometimes unloving relationship with conservatives, especially those millions of conservatives who listen to and abide by Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, not to mention Limbaugh and Hannity themselves, and a failure that in turn will be viewed as both a symptom and a cause of the historic crack-up of the conservative coalition that has sustained and nourished the Republican Party for a couple generations.

As I’ve said before, McCain is not well-liked by the GOP base, and the prospect of a McCain candidacy has made them particularly uneasy. So, though Romney is a slick flip-flopper who rankles the Christian conservatives, a lot of Republicans are settling on him as an acceptable alternative to McCain.

In fact, the radical right is pulling out all the stops to kneecap McCain and push Romney into the nomination:

Yesterday, right-wing radio host Rush Limbaugh spent his entire program trashing John McCain. Limbaugh said it is ludicrous for McCain to claim the mantle of national security. “The idea that we’ve only got one person in this whole roster of candidates, either party, who is willing to take on the war on terror is frankly, absurd,” he said.

Even disgraced former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is jumping into the fray:

Although Gingrich said, “We need to shrug off McCain,” he predicted that the Arizona senator would capture the Republican nomination.

As is Republican operative Richard Viguerie:

Richard Viguerie told Yeas & Nays. “McCain has to show that he cares about conservatives.”

It’s clear that, if McCain scores big today, he’s still going to have a massive uphill battle ahead of him–if not for the nomination, then at least for the hearts and minds of the GOP. Much like Bob Dole or John Kerry, McCain might get the nomination only to find that he can’t rally enough support to get him to the White House.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has a tall order ahead of him–he has to do well enough today to avoid being completely trounced by McCain. If Romney can’t pull it off, he might not be able to overcome McCain’s strategic advantage. We’ll have to see.

The first polls close at 7:00 PM EST, while the last–Alaska’s–will close at 1:00 AM EST. Make sure to check back for tonight’s results.

UPDATE: This will generate some bad press for Clinton:

[Clinton adviser Howard] Wolfson also said Clinton has accepted a debate on Fox News, something Democrats shunned last year. That debate is scheduled for February 11, in Washington D.C., and would also air on the local Fox affiliate.

Last year, progressives were successful in getting the Democratic candidates to shun Fox News debates, treating Fox like the Republican propaganda machine it really is. Clinton agreeing to do a Fox debate–or even considering it–is a big kick in the teeth to Democrats.

Hopefully, the campaign will announce that Wolfson either misspoke or was taken out of context.

UPDATE II: On the McCain front, radical Christian conservative leader James Dobson has made a striking pronouncement, saying he will never support John McCain.

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The Florida Primary: Review

Here are Florida’s results, via TPM:

Republicans (94% reporting) Democrats (94% reporting)
candidate
votes
percentage
candidate
votes percentage
Giuliani 274,244
15%
Clinton 832,107 50%
Huckabee 252,098 14% Edwards
242,057 14%
McCain 673,414 36% Obama 552,004 33%
Paul 60,201 3%
   
Romney 579,437 31%  

Keep in mind that the Democratic results are, since Florida’s delegation was stripped by the DNC and none of the candidates were allowed to campaign in that state.

On the Republican side, where there were some delegates in play, John McCain emerged as tonight’s big winner.  He vindicated his successes in New Hampshire and South Carolina with a victory in Florida, which will award him 57 delegates, enough to make him the new GOP front-runner.

The exit polls give us some interesting information about how people voted– conservatives supported Romney, while moderates (who knew there were any moderate Republicans left) went for McCain.

I  thought that the GOP primary would become a three-way race, each candidate supported by one Republican faction–Huckabee would get social conservatives, McCain would get foreign policy hawks and Romney would get corporate conservatives.

Now, though, Huck is fading fast, which leaves Romney and McCain to split the GOP between moderates and conservatives.  Huckabee needed a win tonight, and now he’s going to have a difficult time moving forward–his unexpected win in Iowa set some high expectations which he hasn’t been able to meet since.

It was widely known that New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan weren’t fertile ground for him, but South Carolina and Florida were both firmly within his reach, and his losses there are huge setbacks.  Huck says he’s staying until the end, but that may not be in his control–with nothing standing between now and Super Tuesday, Huck doesn’t have the support or the momentum to become the Republican nominee.

A bigger loser than Huck, though, is Rudy Giuliani.  After his chest-thumping going into Florida, there is nothing left for him to do now but drop out.  Early on, he benefitted from  McCain’s collapse to become the national front-runner.  Later, Rudy began bleeding support for a variety of reasons–non-conservative positions on various social issues, exploitation of 9/11, foreign policy uberhawkishness, and scandal after scandal after scandal. The more people got to know Giuliani, the less they liked him–as the campaign progressed, his support dropped lower and lower.

Rudy invested heavily in the early states–particularly South Carolina–without a single decent showing anywhere; Florida was his firewall, and all he could manage to was a distant third place.

Currently, CNN is reporting that Giuliani will drop out and endorse McCain, ostensibly with the hope of getting a position with his campaign and holding on to the national spotlight for a little longer.  With him out of the picture, the GOP race is down to four candidates–Romney, McCain, Huckabee and Ron Paul.

Up next is Super Tuesday on February 5th.  A week from today, a huge number of delegates will be awarded on both sides–not enough to decide the nominees, but enough to put some candidates well on their way to the nomination.

On the GOP side, McCain will be riding high off of his recent victories, while Romney will be touting his conservative credentials and trying to recover from tonight’s defeat.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama will have his resounding win in South Carolina and his impressive lineup of endorsers on his side, while Clinton still maintains a sizable lead in the most influential February 5th states.

And, as always, I’ll bring you the results as they become known.  For now, we have a week to get ready–it’ll be interesting to see how things go.

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Romney Fabricates; GOP Suffers (UPDATED)

In order to diffuse criticism that the Mormon church is racist (since it took them until 1978 to allow African-Americans to be ordained or participate in certain temple ceremonies) Mitt Romney started saying that his father–Michigan Governor George Romney–once marched with Martin Luther King Jr.Unfortunately for him, a few journalists started digging and they found that Romney’s story is completely made-up.More from Blue Mass Group:

Mitt Romney will stop at nothing to score political points. Even if it means lying outright about his father.

I saw my father march with Martin Luther King.

Uh huh.

He made a similar statement Sunday during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” He said, “You can see what I believed and what my family believed by looking at our lives. My dad marched with Martin Luther King. My mom was a tireless crusader for civil rights.”

Right. Got it — dad marched with MLK. Even David Broder says so, and supplies some corroborative detail intended to give artistic verisimilitude to an otherwise bald and unconvincing narrative. (BMG bonus points for identifying the source of that phrase!)

As Mitt Romney recalled in his address, his father was able to remind people that he had marched with Martin Luther King Jr. (through upscale Grosse Pointe, Mich., in support of open-housing legislation).

Problem is, it’s not true. None of it. As the Phoenix’s David Bernstein reveals (see also update here) in some superb digging, George Romney never marched “with” — i.e., in the presence of, at the same place at the same time — Martin Luther King, Jr.

Here’s Bernstein, who in addition to calling out Romney, calls out Broder:

[W]hile the late George W. Romney, a four-term governor of Michigan, can lay claim to a strong record on civil rights, the Phoenix can find no evidence that the senior Romney actually marched with King, nor anything in the public record suggesting that he ever claimed to do so. Nor did Mitt Romney ever previously claim that this took place, until long after his father passed away in 1995 – not even when defending accusations of the Mormon church’s discriminatory past during his 1994 Senate campaign.Asked about the specifics of George Romney’s march with MLK, Mitt Romney’s campaign told the Phoenix that it took place in Grosse Pointe, Michigan. That jibes with the description proffered by David S. Broder in a Washington Post column written days after Mitt’s College Station speech.

Broder, in that column, references a 1967 book he co-authored on the Republican Party, which included a chapter on George Romney. It includes a one-line statement that the senior Romney “has marched with Martin Luther King through the exclusive Grosse Pointe suburb of Detroit.”

But that account is incorrect. King never marched in Grosse Pointe, according to the Grosse Pointe Historical Society, and had not appeared in the town at all at the time the Broder book was published. “I’m quite certain of that,” says Suzy Berschback, curator of the Grosse Pointe Historical Society. (B[ro]der was not immediately available for comment.)

Faced with the unfortunate reality that Mitt was making things up, his campaign has retreated into a hilarious Humpty-Dumptyism about what it means to “march with” someone. You see, it doesn’t mean that you were actually there. It means that, well, you participated in a march about a related topic on a different day, and maybe you thought about the guy while you were doing it.

Mitt, in other words, was “speaking figuratively, not literally.”

[Emphasis Added]

This is just ridiculous. Romney has been lying and flip-flopping since day 1 of his campaign, but this more than takes the cake. What sense does it make to diffuse criticism that the Mormon church is racist by making up a story about his father marching with Martin Luther King, even though such a claim is blatantly untrue and can be proven false relatively easily? And what kind of truth-bending hair-splitting parsing is it to say that his father marched “figuratively” with King? How does one figuratively march with someone?

Seriously, is this is the best the GOP can do? A flip-flopping serially-exaggerating Governor of Massachusetts, the scandal-prone law-bending cross-dressing Mayor of New York City, and the corrupt, incompetent, vindictive, radical fundamentalist Arkansas Governor with exceptionally poor judgment and Ron Paul? Seriously?

Conservatives don’t seem to understand that the Republican Party is at a historic crossroads. They have the chance to leave their Reagan-Bush era baggage behind and redefine what it means to be a conservative. They can ditch the burden of the Bush years by nominating a visionary candidate who will lead their party into the future, undoing the damage they caused and improving the lives of millions of Americans.

Instead, the GOP nominates a field full of faceless cookie-cutter Republicans; a field full of liars, exaggerators, incompetents, radicals, extremists and others who are completely unfit to be America’s next President. Romney’s latest fabrication shows just how poor the Republican field is, and just how desperate the GOP has become.

UPDATE: Daily Kos has this supposed clarification from the Romney campaign:

A spokesperson for Mitt Romney now tells the Phoenix that George W. Romney and Martin Luther King Jr. marched together in June, 1963 — although possibly not on the same day or in the same city.

[Emphasis Added]

Again, how can you and someone else march together if you’re not in the same city or even doing it on the same day? Doesn’t that contradict the meaning of “together?” Do we even need to discuss this?

Romney’s in serious trouble. He’s been losing momentum for weeks, and this latest incident shows just how much of a slick used car salesman he is–willing to say anything, anything at all, just to get you on his side. This man should not be allowed anywhere near the White House. Period.

UPDATE II: More from The Huffington Post’s Chris Kelly:

Although they never marched together, they did march separately. In that they were both in Michigan and ambulatory at the same time. And, by “the same time,” I mean “different times.”

Except, if you read the Phoenix story, George Romney didn’t actually “march” anywhere. But he was present at an event. Where King was not.

And Mitt never “saw” it, because he was doing missionary work in France.

WHAT MITT MEANT:

We can all agree that George Romney and Martin Luther King were both alive in June, 1963.



Bad Luck Huck

Another news cycle, another embarrassing story for Mike Huckabee. This time, it’s a book he wrote in 1998 called Kids Who Kill. Some key excerpts:

Abortion, environmentalism, AIDS, pornography, drug abuse, and homosexual activism have fragmented and polarized our communities.

[...]

It is now difficult to keep track of the vast array of publicly endorsed and institutionally supported aberrations—from homosexuality and pedophilia to sadomasochism and necrophilia.

[...]

The legal commitment of ideological secularism to any and all of the fanatically twisted fringes of American culturepornographers, gay activists, abortionists, and other professional liberationists—is a pathetically self-defeating crusade that has confused liberty with license.

[...]

Men who have rejected God and do not walk in faith are more often than not immoral, impure, and improvident (Gal. 5:19-21). They are prone to extreme and destructive behavior, indulging in perverse vices and dissipating sensuality (1 Cor. 6:9-10). And they—along with their families and loved ones—are thus driven over the brink of destruction (Prov. 23:21).

Blaming pro-choice Americans, LGBT rights activists and environmentalism for school violence? Lumping the LGBT community in with pedophiles and necrophiliacs? Asserting that religion is the only source of morality? I knew Huck was a right-wing extremist, but I had no idea he was this extreme.

Then again, this was pretty much the strategy of the conservative culture warriors of the ’90’s–take a bunch of people you don’t like, lump them all together, blame them for society’s ills and prescribe religion/Republicanism as a solution. I’m surprised that Huck–who is renowned by our political press for his “charm” and “authenticity”–would subscribe to this cookie-cutter right-wing boilerplate.  Then again, with Huck, stuff like this is hardly surprising.

Another news cycle, another disturbing revelation about Bad Luck Huck. How long until the GOP realizes just how many skeletons there are in his closet? Or do they not even realize that this guy is a complete embarrassment, that it would be political suicide to hand their party over to him?

Personally, I’m wondering what tomorrow will bring…

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Google Ron Paul?

Recently, Ron Paul broke the one-day fundraising record for a Republican Presidential candidate, raking in approximately $5.2 million dollars. Political Wire has more:

“Most of the donations were made over the Internet in what the supporters called a “money bomb” timed to coincide with the 234th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party. The last fund-raising blitz, which took in 40,000 donations, was timed to coincide with Guy Fawkes Day, which commemorates a British mercenary who tried unsuccessfully to kill King James I on Nov. 5, 1605.” The record take means Paul will likely lead his rivals for money raised during the fourth quarter.

Paul’s supporters will tell you to “Google Ron Paul;” in light of his recent fundriaising success, let’s give that a shot and see what he actually stands for–Orcinus has the definitive account, and it’s nothing less than appalling:

So, I Googled Ron Paul, and I found a record of conservative, pro-corporate, reactionary policies that are to the far right of even the Republican Party. And keep in mind that I didn’t include some of Paul’s crazier aspects, like his obsession with the gold standard or his desire to “protect” American troops from wearing the insignia of the U.N. or any “foreign states.”

I don’t know what his followers see in him, but it seems that they have been taken in by Paul’s campaign rhetoric, which doesn’t match his record in Congress at all. Personally, I wonder if they would support him so vehemently if they followed their own advice and Googled Ron Paul. Either that, or this country has far more deep-pocketed right-wing extremists than I thought.



The Crumbling Conservative Coalition

Or, as Paul Waldman calls it, The Plutocrats v. The Theocrats:

After months of tedium and mindless chest-thumping, the race for the Republican presidential nomination finally got interesting over the last couple of weeks. And the way it did so highlights the fundamental rift threatening the future of the GOP: the divide between the party’s corporate/anti-tax wing, which includes the people who write the checks, and its social conservative wing, which includes the people who get bodies to the polls. It’s the plutocrats versus the theocrats, and at the moment it’s hard to tell who’s going to win.

[...]

And the plutocrats had such high hopes for Romney, who is truly one of their own: to the American aristocracy born (his father was a corporate CEO and Michigan governor) and with a successful career in business, Romney gives the sense that he plans out his breakfast with a Powerpoint presentation. (”Today’s waffles will proactively impact forward-oriented goal actualization while incentivizing value-added synergisms. And there will be syrup.”)

The plutocrats couldn’t care less whether Romney’s recent conversion to hard-right social conservatism was sincere. He can blather on all he wants about activist judges and border fences; what’s important to them is the tax code, whether the National Labor Relations Board keeps its Bush-era affection for union-busting, and whether agencies like OSHA and the FDA remain regulatory panda bears, lolling about in the grass munching bamboo without worrying their little heads about the safety of workers and consumers. When it comes to these matters, the plutocrats know Romney is their guy.

But they don’t quite trust Huckabee, who, as Sarah Posner has noted, has shown troubling flashes of sympathy for ordinary people and had a mixed record in Arkansas, both raising and cutting taxes at various times. Perhaps in order to appear more of an anti-tax fundamentalist, Huckabee is advocating eliminating all current federal taxes in favor of a national sales tax, an idea so ludicrous no one bothers to debate it.

But as of yet, Huckabee has not pledged allegiance to the de rigueur Republican tax fantasy that cutting taxes ultimately leads to an increase in revenues. Rudy Giuliani has climbed aboard this express train to Stupidville, saying in a recent television ad, “I know that reducing taxes produces more revenues. Democrats don’t know that, they don’t believe that.”

[...]

These voters [the theocrats] are less than entirely pleased with what they’ve gotten from all their hard work over the last few elections. Every two years, they’re promised that if they work their little hearts out, they’ll finally get those constitutional amendments banning abortion and putting the gays in their place. But even George W. Bush, who worked harder to convince the religious right that he was their man more than any GOP nominee ever has, didn’t power up the time machine and take us all back to the bliss of the 1950s. But he worked hard for those tax cuts — you bet your life he did. The plutocrats got showered with riches, and the theocrats got lines from hymns dropped into speeches. As Bush himself famously said, “Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — can’t get fooled again.”

[Emphsais Added]

And, thus is the nature of the Romney-Huckabee battle, and thus is the nature of the crumbling conservative coalition.

The Republican party relies on the Christian right as footsoldiers–they carry the Party’s message out to rural America, they preach GOP gospel from the pulpits, and on election day they turn out to the polls in large enough numbers to get Republicans elected.

But, in the end, the Christian right gets a lot of talk and nearly no action in return. Why? Because the GOP cares more about money than ideology. Sure, they’ll pander to the wants and needs of the Christian right, but when it comes down to it they spend their political capital on tax cuts for their wealthy buddies, Wall-Street-pleasing Social Security privatization, free trade, and other giveaways to the top 1% (of which the theocrats are usually not members).

Look at recent years–the GOP controlled all three branches of government, yet they never gave the Christian right their day in the sun. Abortion is still legal, and it’s likely to stay legal for a long time. There was no constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, and the 2004 state-level gay marriage bans will eventually be overturned. Immigration reform will not happen without a path to citizenship, and so on.

Simply put, the theocrats have been lied to. Year after year, the GOP promises them the world, yet once in office they stab them in the back and spend their time stuffing their pockets. Unfortunately for the Republican Party, the Christian right is quickly learning that they aren’t part of that group of friends, and that the GOP has taken advantage of them for far too long. The Christian right is revolting, hoping to exact revenge against the faux-conservative plutocrats who have taken advantage of them for so long.

The Republicans have created a monster that they can no longer control. The Christian conservative footsoldiers have stopped listening to their plutocratic masters and are bucking the party orthodoxy–they’re determined to make Mike Huckabee their candidate, much to the chagrin of the moneyed Romney campaign. And while plutocratic money can certainly get people out to the polls, it’s not nearly as effective as theocratic zealotry.

The plutocrats are afraid. They’re worried that Huck–who couldn’t care less about stuffing their pockets, but who really does care about Armageddon and the end times–will become the standard-bearer of their party. What will they do? What can they do? Will they support him? Will they abandon him? Will they find someone else?

In the end, there is poetic justice in this–the Republican Party, which has become dependent on the dogmatism of the Christian right, is now being consumed by that same burning zealotry. Will the GOP be able to survive a revolt by the monster that the Party believed–in all hubris–they could control forever?



Strike After Strike After Strike (UPDATED)

As time goes on, story after story comes out that gives us more and more reasons to dislike Mike Huckabee.

Case in point:

In June 1998, the Southern Baptist convention amended its official statement of beliefs for the first time in 35 years to declare that “a wife is to submit graciously to the servant leadership of her husband.” And Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist minister then serving as governor of Arkansas, signed a full-page ad in USA Today in support of the statement (along with 129 other evangelical leaders).

But wait, there’s more:

Mike Huckabee criticizes the Bush administration for having an “arrogant bunker mentality” that “has been counterproductive at home and abroad.” Nevertheless, Huckabee — who supports the war in Iraq — said he would “not withdraw troops from Iraq any faster than Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander there, recommends.

And we’re not through yet:

Today, former governor Mike Huckabee (R-AK) announced Ed Rollins as his new campaign chairman. In 1993, Rollins chaired the successful campaign of Christinie Todd Whitman in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, where he paid black leaders to not speak out for opponent Jim Florio:

“We went into black churches and we basically said to ministers who had endorsed Florio, ‘Do you have a special project?’ And they said, “We’ve already endorsed Florio,” Mr. Rollins said. “We said, ‘That’s fine. Don’t get up on the pulpit Sunday and say it’s your moral obligation that you go on Tuesday to vote for Jim Florio.’”

Mr. Rollins said the campaign used a more direct approach to persuade some Democratic political workers to stay home on Election Day. “We said to some of their key workers, ‘How much have they paid you to do your normal duty?’ ” he said. “Well, we’ll match it. Go home, sit and watch television.”

Are you kidding me?

This is the man the GOP wants to be the next President of the United States? This guy represents the absolute worst of the Bush administration–the extremism, dogmatism, corruption, arrogance. A Huckabee presidency would be just as bad–if nor worse–than the Bush presidency.

So much has come to light that hurts Huckabee, it’s hard to even keep it all straight. Corruption as Governor of Arkansas? Wayne DuMond? Quarantining AIDS patients? Ignoring the NIE? Religious extremism? Demanding wives submit to their husbands? Wanting to stay in Iraq? Shacking up with racist anti-black activists? Where will this list end? How much will it take for the GOP to realize that Huck wasn’t even qualified to be Governor of Arkansas, and he’s certainly not qualified to be our next President?

It just goes on and on and on. Then again, let the GOP nominate Two-Buck Huck; it’ll just make it that much easier for the Democrats to win next November.

UPDATE: Another news cycle, another unpleasant revelation about Huck:

Questions are being raised about then-Gov. Huckabee’s 2004 decision to grant clemency to a repeat Driving While Intoxicated offender in Arkansas named Eugene Fields, despite the objections of a law enforcement official at the time. Documents obtained by NBC News reveal Fields’ case was handled differently from any other DWI clemency or pardon granted by Huckabee, and some Republicans are now suggesting significant political contributions may have influenced the governor’s decision.

Cash-for-clemency? Tell me again how this guy is supposed to be the epitome of honesty and morality?

More from, of all people, George Will:

“Huckabee, this week it was learned that he gave more clemencies, one every four days, to convicted criminals in Arkansas – more than the three preceding governors combined, included Bill Clinton.”

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“War On Christmas” (UPDATED)

Bill O’Reilly recently declared victory in the War on Christmas. I wonder if this was what he had in mind:

A Muslim man jumped to the aid of three Jewish subway riders after they were attacked by a group of young people who objected to one of the Jews saying “Happy Hanukkah,” a spokeswoman for the three said Wednesday.

Friday’s altercation on the Q train began when somebody yelled out “Merry Christmas,” to which rider Walter Adler responded, “Happy Hanukkah,” said Toba Hellerstein.

“Almost immediately, you see the look in this guy’s face like I’ve called his mother something,” Adler told CNN affiliate WABC.

Two women who were with a group of 10 rowdy people then began to verbally assault Adler’s companions with anti-Semitic language, Hellerstein said.

One member of the group allegedly yelled, “Oh, Hanukkah. That’s the day that the Jews killed Jesus,” she said.

When Adler tried to intercede, a male member of the group punched him, she said.

Another passenger, Hassan Askari — a Muslim student from Bangladesh — came to Adler’s aid, and the group began physically and verbally assaulting him, Hellerstein said.

[...]

The suspects are to appear in Brooklyn District Court on February 7 on charges that include assault, attempted assault, menacing, harassment, unlawful assembly, riot and disorderly conduct, Silverstein said.

The New York Police Department’s Hate Crimes Task Force is investigating the incident, and will determine whether the suspects will be charged with hate crimes, Officer Philip Hauser told CNN.

[Emphasis Added]

I’m not saying this attack was caused by the conservatives’ supposed”War on Christmas,” but the same philosophy underlies both.

Conservatives believe that–since 80% of America is Christian and 83% plan to celebrate Christmas this year–saying “Merry Christmas” should not just be accepted, but required. To them, showing respect to those who celebrate other holidays–or no holidays at all–is seen as waging a “War on Christmas,” disrespecting one holiday by refusing to disrespect every other holiday. These Christian conservatives expect the entire world to kowtow to their beliefs, embodying a form of virulent majoritarianism.

Conservative culture warriors want to create a situation where “Merry Christmas” is the only acceptable holiday greeting, where recognizing other faiths is condemned as part of some “secularist progressive” agenda. Thus, you open the door to situations like the NYC subway attack, where someone who doesn’t say “Merry Christmas” is attacked for not being a member of the majority.

The “War on Christmas” is nothing more than a sad attempt by conservatives to stigmatize tolerance and push their own beliefs. There was a time when tolerance and respect were considered virtues– Christian virtues, even–and now they’re portrayed by conservatives as, ironically, anti-Christian. It’s not enough that 4/5ths of America celebrates Christmas–these conservatives aim to have Christmas be the only acceptable winter holiday. Period.

Conservatives rail against the “ACLU Grinches” who they see as as somehow harming the most widely-celebrated holiday in America, yet it’s like none of them actually read How The Grinch Stole Christmas. If they had, they would know the moral of the story: despite the fact that the Grinch stole the decorations, the food, the presents and all the typical Christmas trimmings, it didn’t stop anyone from celebrating Christmas. Why? Because Christmas isn’t about any of those things–it’s about giving and togetherness, celebration and family, seeing the best in people and recognizing the good in the world.

It doesn’t matter whether the greeter at Wal-Mart says “Merry Christmas” or “Happy Holidays,” and it doesn’t matter if a man on the subway wishes you a “Happy Hanukkah.” In the end, Christmas is about the spirit of the holiday–if conservatives understood this, they would spend the season embodying Christ’s message of tolerance and understanding, not demonizing their political enemies and fighting for public nativity scenes.

If you want to put the “Christ” back in “Christmas,” live up to his teachings by showing your fellow man some tolerance and love. Because, in the end, isn’t that what Christ was all about? And shouldn’t Christmas be a celebration of what Christ was all about?

UPDATE: Welcome readers of Salon’s Blog Report! Thanks for clicking through, feel free to look through the archives and I hope you stop by again tomorrow.



WMR ≠ JFK (UPDATED)

Mitt Romney gave his religion speech today–mostly to counteract the rise of Two-Buck Huck, who has captured the heart of the religious right.

Color me unimpressed. First off, can we please stop calling it his Kennedy speech? Because it was anything but:

Finally, there was the ridiculous comparison to JFK’s 1960 speech. I say the comparison is ridiculous because the situations were completely different. In September 1960, Kennedy was the nominee of the Democratic Party, and faced the task of reassuring Americans that his faith would not conflict with the duties of the office he sought, and upon which Americans would decide within weeks. Today, Romney is just one of several Republican contenders, so his task was actually to convince the evangelical core residing within the Republican Party that his faith is not incompatible with their deciding to let him carry the Republican banner into an election that’s still almost a year away. Kennedy’s target, by necessity, was the greater America. Romney’s target, by necessity, was Republican evangelicals. (Hence the early plug: “Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom.” Freedom requires religion? Really? That’s really intriguing. How so? Oh nevermind, he’s not taking questions.) So it should surprise no one that he revealed nothing about his actual religion (which was how the speech was sold), given that an actual appeal for tolerance based on an honest recounting of his theology would have been political suicide.

Romney’s speech was absolutely unimpressive, filled with the same stale rhetoric and religious-right pandering that you can get from any other Republican candidate. In fact, he used the word “Mormon” only once, and he explained nothing about his religion or his particular religious beliefs. Romney was trying to gloss over his religion, using broad platitudes about faith and belief to avoid talking about his faith and beliefs. Honestly, I think this speech will raise far more questions then it answered, and I doubt Romney’s cookie-cutter rhetoric put any skeptical minds at ease.

Also, I know he’s called Flip Romney for a reason, but this is just ridiculous. Watch the flip:

“There are some who would have a presidential candidate describe and explain his church’s distinctive doctrines. To do so would enable the very religious test the founders prohibited in the Constitution. No candidate should become the spokesman for his faith. For if he becomes president he will need the prayers of the people of all faiths.”

And now the flop:

“Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom. Freedom opens the windows of the soul so that man can discover his most profound beliefs and commune with God. Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone.”

That does not make sense. Either we don’t have religious tests for candidates and thus religion isn’t important in the governance of this country, or freedom and religion are intertwined, and thus religion must play a role in American government. Either Romney doesn’t really know what he believes, or he’s trying to have it both ways–brushing off questions about his faith while throwing red meat to the very conservatives asking those questions.

Sorry, Romney, but you got this one wrong. Freedom of religion doesn’t just mean you can practice any faith you choose–it also means you can choose to practice no faith at all. You’re free to be a Christian or a Muslim or a Mormon or an Atheist or anything else. In establishing freedom of religion, our founding fathers acknowledged that freedom doesn’t need religion and religion doesn’t need freedom–if you need to be reminded of that, look no further than the Constitution.

UPDATE: More from Devilstower:

Romney

Almost 50 years ago another candidate from Massachusetts explained that he was an American running for president, not a Catholic running for president.

Kennedy

For contrary to common newspaper usage, I am not the Catholic candidate for president. I am the Democratic Party’s candidate for president, who happens also to be a Catholic.

That difference is not a minor one. Kennedy’s speech was full of bold, direct confrontation of the issues facing him not as a Catholic, but as Democratic candidate for president. Romney’s speech is, beginning to end, a distortion of history. Not only does he attempt to strip the Democrat from JFK, he is ready to accept every lie about the relationship between religion and the history of the United States. His speech plays to the full set of fears Republicans have used to bludgeon the public over the last twenty years, and builds to a frighteningly explicit demand for theocracy.

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Huckabee Rising (UPDATED)

Huckabee’s stock is rising, both nationwide and in Iowa–it seems like Republican base voters who are dissatisfied with Romney and Giuliani are picking him as a last resort.

Unfortunately for them, Huckabee has some pretty big skeletons in his closet. According to those who know him best, Huck’s a radical right-wing Christian with a history of corrupt, hand-in-the-cookie-jar politics (Matt Taibbi has more here).

Can the Republican Party really afford to pick a Presidential nominee with a detailed history of corruption? Can they really trust Two-Buck Huck to keep his hands out of the cookie jar? If history is any guide, the answer is a resounding “no.”

UPDATE: According to Politics West, the innocuously-named group Common Sense Issues, Inc. has been conducting push polls on Two-Buck Huck’s behalf:

The group behind a pair of biting ads targeting Democratic Senate candidate Mark Udall is also stirring controversy in the presidential caucus in Iowa, using a controversial tactic known as push-polling to boost Republican contender Mike Huckabee even as the tactic is being denounced by Huckabee himself.

That group, known as Common Sense Issues Inc., is a close relative of a network of organizations that have a contentious history as players in several hotly contested races over the last two years, including campaigns in Montana, South Dakota, Tennessee and Ohio.

[...]

The calls tell listeners they are paid for by an organization known as “Trust Huckabee,” but that group is under the umbrella of Common Sense Issues and Davis is executive director of both. The two are part of a lineage of organizations that include Common Sense 2006, Common Sense Ohio, Common Sense Tennessee, among others.

[...]

But critics, including many Republicans, say the calls are thinly veiled attack ads. In last year’s contentious senate race in Montana, the Great Falls Tribune reported that one of the polls conducted by Common Sense 2006 asked: “Does knowing that organic farmer Jon Tester voted for nearly half a billion dollars in tax increases and refuses to sign a no-new-taxes pledge, and that Conrad Burns has never voted for a single tax increase, make you even more favorable to Conrad Burns?”

The poll was denounced by both candidates, the Democrat Tester and the Republican Burns.

Davis said that so far this year, the group has been active in South Dakota and Montana, as well as Colorado and Iowa.

Just something to look out for. To be fair, campaign finance law mandates that groups such as these operate independently of the official campaign, but it’s not unheard of for campaigns and groups to skirt the law in order to collude.  Whether or not he had a hand in it, negative campaigning on Huckabee’s behalf is bad news for him.



On Mike Huckabee (UPDATED)

John Gorenfeld at AlterNet has five eyebrow-raising facts about Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee that everyone should know. Huckabee’s momentum in Iowa is growing, and he’s managed to hide the most of his extremism until now. Here’s the short version:

1. Clinton conspiracy theories inspired his biggest mistake.

“Clinton’s biggest crime,” claimed New York Post scribe Steve Dunleavy in 2000, was allowing a Vietnam veteran named Wayne DuMond to go to prison for 50 years after being convicted — falsely, Dunleavy said — for the 1985 knifepoint rape of the 17-year-old cheerleader Ashley Stevens, a distant cousin of the Clintons. “That rape never happened,” Dunleavy said.

In cloudy circumstances, DuMond had suffered castration before his jailing. He said a lynch mob had severed his testicles. They somehow ended up as trophies on the desk of a crooked local sheriff, Coolidge Conlee. In the view of the theorists, Conlee was somehow an “ally” of the Clintons, conjuring up a world in which state politics were on the scale of The Dukes of Hazzard. “He didn’t have no right to take them,” DuMond said of his balls in 1988.

By the time Huckabee became governor, it was believed by many on the Right that DuMond had not only been maimed but also framed by the Bill & Hillary Octopus. Responding to the pressure, Huckabee said DuMond had gotten a “raw deal” and wrote to the imprisoned DuMond: “Dear Wayne, [m]y desire is that you be released from prison. I feel that parole is the best way for your reintroduction into society to take place.”

In June 2001, Ashley Stevens heard on her car radio that DuMond — let loose by the state of Arkansas — had beein seized for strangling 39-year-old Carol Shields in Kansas City, leaving her naked and bound on a bed. Authorities had also suspected DuMond in the similar rape-murder of a 23-year-old pregnant victim, Sarah Andrasek.

Huckabee has since sought to pin the blame on a parole board for freeing the ingrateful DuMond. The next year, however, the Arkansas Times took home an alt-newsweekly award for a piece, “Huckabee Frees Career Rapist,” in which numerous inside sources said it was the governor who made the decision.

[Emphasis added]

This is worse than Willie Horton, all on Huckabee’s shoulders. He fell for a rediculous Clinton conspiracy theory, leading him to release a serial rapist from prison. A man who would let Clinton Derangement Syndrome lead him to make such a huge mistake can’t be trusted to be President. Period.

2. Win over the Christian Right? He is the Christian Right.

[...]

No moderate, James Robison — a self-described “dark-visaged, angry preacher” for whose TV ministry Huck became communications director — raged against gays. In one piece of footage, Huckabee’s boss bellows that he is “sick and tired, hearing about all the radicals and perverts and the liberals and the leftists and the Communists coming out of the closet. It’s time for God’s people to come out of the closet, out of the churches and change America!”

As press flack, Huckabee had to handle the fallout in 1979 when Robison was kicked off the Dallas station WFAA for citing a National Enquirer report that gays seduce and kill children.

[...]

Despite Huckabee’s undiluted credentials — as someone who helped to build the Moral Majority, as a governor who fought to stop gays from adopting — he has been slighted by other like-minded Christian leaders.

[Emphasis added]

Huckabee played a role in building the religious right, fostering the dangerous fusion of religion and politics. He embodies some of the worst of the Republican party–extremism and dogmatism, all wrapped in self-righteous obstinance. In other words, Huckabee’s much like George W. Bush without the business degree.

3. If you’re a Minuteman, you’ll hate Huckabee.

To his credit, Huckabee is not as extreme as his Republican counterparts on immigration. He’s relatively sympathetic towards immigrants, and he understands that the Republican position on immigration is driven by racism.

None of this will help him with his party’s base, though–the build-a-wall-and-deport-them-all crowd won’t stand for someone like Huckabee representing them.

4. He supports a crazy tax plan.

[...]

To boost his tax cred, candidate Huckabee has eagerly signed onto FairTax, a proposal to abolish the IRS touted by Atlanta radio host Neal Boortz and at rallies nationwide. Boortz would end the income tax. Instead you’d pay a federal sales tax, and to offset resulting problems, the government would write you checks every month. How much you get depends on the number of people are in your household. And nothing else.

The cash awards, or “prebates,” are supposed to offset how hard it will be on poor people to pay more for groceries. For the middle class, it has the allure of the government paying you, instead of vice-versa, while you get to fire your accountant and throw out your paperwork, unless of course you’re a store owner, in which case you become neighborhood taxman.

[...]

But what’s important is whether FairTax itself is workable. Analysts across the political spectrum have said it isn’t. Costs could far exceed the promised 23 percent sales tax, and possible side effects include instantly creating a tax-free black market for everything, screwing up important deductions and punishing older people who’ve paid the old way.

[Emphasis added]

The “fair tax” is a sham born out of rabid anti-tax zealotry. Essentially, it calls for a national sales tax of 23% (that’s in addition to the state and local sales taxes you already pay) on all goods and services. To offset the massive cost the poor and middle class would pay, the government gives money to families based on their size. Of course, this doesn’t take into account how much a family actually spends–if a family has higher-than-normal expenses, such as a medical emergency (yes, nedical services are taxed 23% under this plan), they have to absorb those costs themselves.

It’s a Ron Paul-quality idea– an unworkable scheme that sounds good on the stump but would never work in real life. Our tax system certainly needs reform, but it doesn’t need to be thrown in the garbage in favor of some crazy right-wing gimmick.

5. If you enjoyed the Terri Schiavo case, you’ll love the Huckabee administration.

[...]

[H]e grabbed national headlines with a governor’s intervention that year to block the state from paying $419 for a retarded 15-year-old girl’s abortion, her pregnancy stemming from being raped by her stepfather on a camping trip.

Huckabee held up Medicaid payment for the operation. He claimed his hands were tied by the state constitution, Amendment 68, which prevented underwriting of abortions unless the mother’s life was endangered. The Supreme Court had thrown arguments from Christian Right governors like these out before. But Huck held to his guns, which threatened to end the $900 million annual agreement with Washington that gave his state medical money, so long as it played by federal rules.

A compromise was finally reached in which private money footed the bill.

Yes, Mike Huckabee threatened to deny the people of Arkansas $900 million a year worth of health care to prevent just one abortion. If that cutting-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face politics sounds like your thing, by all means consider Huckabee your guy.
Huckabee has some eyebrow-raising momentum in Iowa, and he’s most frequently mentioned as the Republican vice-presidential front runner. His extreme conservative credentials may be enough to balance out the newfound, wishy-washy conservatism of candidates like Romney and Giuliani, but that doesn’t change the fact that Mike Huckabee is a right-wing extremist who belongs nowhere near the White House.

(And the article doesn’t even get into Huckabee’s record of pay-for-play corruption as Governor of Arkansas).

UPDATE: Matt Taibbi at Rolling Stone has a lot more here.  This piece does spend some time talking about Huckabee’s disturbing hand-in-the-cookie-jar politics back in Arkansas.

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