Filed under: 2012 Election, Conservatives, Corruption, Government, Governors, Polls, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Scandal | Tags: 2012, Alaska, Corruption, David Frum, Ethics, Numbers, Quitter, Republicans, Sarah Palin
The verdict on Gov. Sarah Palin’s resignation is in–and things are not looking good for the soon-to-be ex Governor:
At the same time just 37% of Americans now say they believe Palin is fit to be President, while 55% say she is not. And while her move last week may not have hurt her overall favorability, it does seem to have negatively impacted voters’ inclination to some day put her in the White House. 57% of respondents said her resignation makes them less likely to support her in a future Presidential bid.
[Emphasis mine]
And, still, the reason for Gov. Palin’s resignation still isn’t clear. Was it for a presidential bid? To get her family out of the limelight? To deal with the various ethical charges that have been brought against her?
Well, subsequent interviews with Palin appear to point to the latter, with Palin basically claiming that the ethics charges against her were paralyzing. But that’s a pretty damn poor justification–resigning because there are so many ethical charges against you that you can’t possibly fight them all and still do your job. And it certainly doesn’t bode well for your political future when you basically have to admit that your state would be better off without you running it.
But, more importantly, Palin’s allegations that fighting the ethical charges against her would be too costly for the people of Alaska appears to be completely false:
During her resignation speech last week, Palin presented herself as a heroic defender of the taxpayer. She said that money being spent on government lawyers to defend against these “frivolous ethics violations” could be “going to things that are very important, like troopers and roads and teachers and fish research.” Palin repeated exactly the same point this week.
But David Murrow, a spokesperson for the Governor, said in an interview that much of this money was budgeted to the lawyers in advance and would have gone to them anyway, even if state lawyers hadn’t been defending against these ethics complaints.
In response to our questions, the Governor’s office provided us with a detailed breakdown of the millions Palin has claimed has gone to defending against ethics complaints. It does list roughly $1.9 million in expenditures.
But Murrow, the spokesperson, acknowledged to our reporter, Amanda Erickson, that this total was arrived at by adding up attorney hours spent on fending off complaints — based on the fixed salaries of lawyers in the governor’s office and the Department of Law. The money would have gone to the lawyers no matter what they were doing. The complaints are “just distracting them from other duties,” Murrow said.
In other words, while these lawyers might have been free to do other legal work for the state, the ethics complaints have apparently not had the real world impact Palin has claimed, and didn’t drain money away from cops, teachers, roads and other things.
[Emphasis mine]
Plus–according to TPM–there are only three outstanding ethics complaints against Palin, anyway.
Even conservative commentator and former Bush speechwriter David Frum thinks Palin is toast:
Between her speeches and her book deal, [Palin] can reasonably hope to earn $10 million over the next two years. She’ll fly in private jets, sleep in sumptuous hotel suites, receive rhapsodic applause.
Yet there will be no escaping another story line. Faced with exasperating criticism and the accumulating cares of public office—she quit to cash in. Her admirers can excuse anything, but to the much larger audience of non-admirers, Palin will look a lot like those CEOs who wrecked their banks and the national economy while accepting huge bonuses for themselves. John McCain’s slogan in 2008 was “Country First.” Palin’s in 2012? “I seen my opportunities, and I took ‘em.”
[Emphasis added]
Sarah Palin has become a fascinating story again; her abrupt resignation is so bizarre–there is no positive way to spin it, there is no real upside in quitting unless she plans never to hold elected office again.
Like I remarked a few days ago, we might have just borne witness to the steepest rise and fastest fall of any politician in modern American history; much like a meteorite crashing to earth, it’s hard not to watch in awe.
UPDATE: And then there’s this:
David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, told Newsmax that Palin has to stop complaining. “You’ve got to recognize that there are people who want you to fail,” he said. “And if you spend your time worrying about them, or whining about what they say, at the very least it’ll get you off your game.”
Filed under: 2010 Election, 2012 Election, Conservatives, Governors, Polls | Tags: 2010, 2012, Alaska, Fail, Gallup, Numbers, Quitter, Republicans, Sarah Palin
A new USA Today/Gallup poll has found that “Sarah Palin’s bombshell that she is resigning as Alaska governor actually has boosted her a bit among Republicans.” According to the poll, “two-thirds of Republicans want Palin…to be ‘a major national political figure‘ in the future”
[...]
Seventy-two percent of Republicans surveyed said they are “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote for her if she runs for president
[Emphasis mine]
So, there you have it–if you stab your constituents in the back, leaving them high and dry in the middle of a financial crisis, and quit your job two-thirds of the way through, Republicans will love you.
But I just can’t see Palin winning higher office. While her resignation will give her time to fly around giving speeches and raising money, it has all but destroyed her credibility–if she couldn’t even be trusted to serve out her one single term as Governor, how could she be trusted to fulfill any other promise or commitment she makes?
If Palin runs in 2012, her rivals are going to destroy her for having abandoned her responsibilities to her constituents. Beyond that, I don’t see how she could have a shot at the Presidency without holding another elected office–31 months as Governor of Alaska (several of those which she spent campaigning for the Vice Presidency) is not anywhere near enough experience for anyone to get close to the White House.
The GOP may love Sarah Palin, but the GOP isn’t the majority anymore, and Palin’s disappearing act destroyed any semblance of credibility or appearance of competence she may have had among Democrats and Independents. Nobody can predict the future, of course, but it looks to me that Sarah Palin’s career as an elected official is over.
And it speaks volumes about the GOP that being irresponsible makes you more popular among Republicans.
Filed under: 2010 Election, 2012 Election, Breaking, Conservatives, Corruption, Government, Polls, Scandal | Tags: 2010, 2012, Alaska, Alaska Lieutenant Governor, Elections, Republicans, Sarah Palin, Sean Parnell
Alaska Governor (and 2008 GOP VP candidate) Sarah Palin announced that she will resign the Governorship of Alaska later this month, transferring power to Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell
Developing…
UPDATE: Palin has confirmed that she will resign the Governorship on July 26th.
Personally, I can think of only two reasons for her abrupt resignation. The first is that Palin wants to focus on a candidacy for President. But if that’s the case, then this is perhaps the worst move she can make, abandoning the people who elected her before her first term is even over. It makes her look feckless and untrustworthy and ruthlessly ambitious; it certainly doesn’t make her look the least bit Presidential.
And even if Palin wants to run for President, her term ends in January, 2011–which would give her plenty of time to campaign if she simply chose to wait her first term out. But abandoning her office like this is putting nails in her Presidential coffin.
Or, it could be the case that there’s a major scandal coming down the pipeline that is likely to sink Palin’s political career and she’s trying to head it off at the pass–I mean, if she already resigned then there can’t be any pressure on her to resign, regardless of how bad her scandal is.
We don’t know for sure why Palin stepped down the way she did (though there are rumors) but it’s likely her resignation signals the end of her political career. Considering that Sarah Palin was a virtual unknown just one year go, it looks like she may have been the steepest rise and fastest fall of anyone in modern political history.
Filed under: 2010 Election, Breaking, House, Polls, Progressives, Senate | Tags: Senate, House, New York, Primaries, 2010, Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney
Even more big primary news today–NY Rep. Carolyn Maloney will mount a primary challenge against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed by the very unpopular Governor Paterson to replace Hillary Clinton:
An adviser to Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) confirmed Wednesday that the congresswoman will enter the state’s Senate primary against appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.).
Paul Blank, who works with Democratic consultant Joe Trippi’s firm, said Maloney is officially in the race. Blank is set to serve as a top adviser for her Senate campaign.
“Congresswoman Maloney has made her decision,” Blank said. “She believes times are too tough and our challenges too important for politics as usual.
He added: “Congresswoman Maloney is putting together a campaign team and will make her announcement in two weeks.”
[...]
It might not matter, though, as the GOP doesn’t appear close to landing a big-name candidate. Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.) said in recent days that he is leaning against running now that he has landed a spot on the House Intelligence Committee. Former Gov. George Pataki (R) is also weighing a run but is not expected to make a bid. A new Marist poll, coincidentally released Wednesday, showed Maloney leading Gillibrand within the margin of error, 38-37. Gillibrand is still unknown to about one-third of voters.
[Emphasis mine]
Maloney’s strength isn’t surprising–she was widely rumored to be eying a Senate run in 2000 before Clinton stepped in, and the district she represents is more populous than Gillibrand’s upstate district was; she has also been serving in Congress since 1993 (as opposed to Gillibrand, who took her seat in 2007).
I don’t have strong opinions on either Gillibrand or Maloney, but considering the GOP’s recruiting failure I don’t see how a primary will hurt–putting pressure on our elected officials to represent their people better is never a bad thing.
Filed under: 2008 Election, Breaking, Conservatives, Governors, Polls, Progressives, Senate | Tags: 2008, Al Franken, Democrats, Judiciary, Minnesota, Minnesota Supreme Court, Norm Coleman, Republicans, Tim Pawlenty
It’s been nearly 8 months since Election Day.
It’s been more than 6 months since Inauguration Day.
And, finally, Minnesota’s outstanding Senate race has been decided.
Minnesota’s Supreme Court has affirmed [PDF] that Al Franken is the duly-elected junior Senator from Minnesota, having garnered more votes than former Senator Norm Coleman.
Of course, Franken still needs a certificate of election signed by his state’s governor, Republican Tim Pawlenty. But Pawlenty said that he would abide by the Supreme Court’s decision:
Minnesota law does not allow the governor to sign an election certificate until the state court process is complete. And when it is, and they direct me to sign the certificate, I’m going to sign it. There’s not going to be any undue delay or the like. But I’m going to follow the direction of the courts in that regard and we’re going to be having a decision here in the coming weeks … I have to follow the law. If the Minnesota Supreme Court says, “You sign the certificate” — and there’s not an appeal or some other contrary direction from a federal court — you know, that’s my duty. I can’t just ignore that or say I don’t feel like following a directive from the Minnesota Supreme Court. That would not be the responsible thing to do.
[Emphasis mine]
There’s a chance that Coleman could appeal this decision to the federal judiciary, which may give Pawlenty room to once again put off signing a certificate.
But the Minnesota Supreme Court should be the final say in this case, and they have resoundingly affirmed that Al Franken is the junior Senator from Minnesota.
UPDATE: I should note that the decision was unanimous–the court ruled 5-0 in Franken’s favor.
Here’s the key part of the ruling:
For all of the foregoing reasons, we affirm the decision of the trial court that Al Franken received the highest number of votes legally cast and is entitled under Minn. Stat. § 204C.40 (2008) to receive the certificate of election as United States Senator from the State of Minnesota.
UPDATE II: Norm Coleman just conceded; congratulations to Senator Al Franken!
Filed under: Conservatives, Government, Polls, Progressives, Race, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Senate | Tags: Congress, Democrats, Fail, Florida, Hispanics, Judge Sotomayor, Judiciary, Lindsey Graham, Mel Martinez, Numbers, Republicans, South Carolina
Turning back to domestic politics for a bit, the GOP is failing to reap political benefits from opposing Judge Sotomayor’s nomination to the Supreme Court:
Nearly a month after President Barack Obama picked her for the Supreme Court, Republican senators say Sonia Sotomayor isn’t serving as the political lightning rod some in their party had hoped she would be.
“She doesn’t have the punch out there in terms of fundraising and recruiting, I think — at least so far,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), who most likely will be elected as the No. 4 Republican in Senate leadership this week.
[...]
“Right now, you don’t have the fever pitch you did over the filibuster,” said [Sen. Lindsey]Graham, a member of the Judiciary Committee. “It depends on how she does [at the hearings]. If she performs well, no. If she performs poorly, potentially, yes.”
“I don’t think she’s the kind of person that invites that kind of reaction,” said Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) of the possibility of making major political gains over Sotomayor’s nomination. “I don’t think her judicial record warrants the ability to do that with her.”
Who could have imagined that an experienced, talented, highly-accomplished judge with a history of moderate, sensible decisions would turn out to be completely uncontroversial?
The GOP bungled this from the start. They only had two options–filibuster or let Sotomayor slide. It would have been extremely hard for them to filibuster; in fact, it’s likely Sotomayor will be confirmed by a wide margin.
Therefore, conservatives would have been smart just to let Obama have his nominee and avoid a political battle. Plus, going along with him on this one would have helped dispel the perception that the GOP is made up of kneejerk obstructionists; sometimes, a little bipartisanship can go a long way.
Instead, conservatives attacked Judge Sotomayor from the start, desperately grasping at one ineffective attack after the next, clearly lacking any semblance of a strategy. Now conservatives are being forced to eat their words as the likelihood of Judge Sotomayor’s confirmation looms.
It looks like Republicans have become completely politically tone-deaf. They obstruct for the sake of obstructing without giving a single thought to whether or not they can succeed; they waste political capital on battles they can never hope to win, and then pat themselves on the back for their self-defeating and ultimately pointless opposition. Once again, the GOP has failed to deliver; no wonder people are abandoning their party in droves.
UPDATE: Hispanics, especially, are abandoning the GOP in droves:
The latest numbers from the nonpartisan Research 2000 for Daily Kos find that only eight percent of Latinos view the [GOP] favorably, while an astonishing 86 percent view it unfavorably.
That’s a real shift from what were already pretty bad numbers from before the Sotomayor nominatino, when 11% of Latinos viewed the GOP favorably, and 79% viewed it unfavorably.
One of the big stories today is that Republicans are realizing that there’s no political percentage in fighting the Sotomayor nomination. It’s striking that Latino opinion about the GOP is dropping so fast, even at a moment when GOP opposition to Sotomayor appears to be flagging, as opposed to intensifying.
This continuing drop among Latinos, coming at a time when many party strategists recognize the party’s desperate need to broaden its appeal, only reminds us that not only are there few apparent upsides in opposing Sotomayor, there are potentially serious costs, too.
[Emphasis mine]
Filed under: 2009 Election, 2010 Election, Conservatives, Governors, Polls, Progressives | Tags: 2005, 2009, Attorney General, Bob McDonnell, Brian Moran, Creigh Deeds, Democrats, Republicans, Terry McAuliffe, VA-GOV, Virginia
With 60% of precincts reporting, Creigh Deeds (50%) leads Terry McAuliffe (26%) and Brian Moran (24%) in VA’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. That’s a pretty insurmountable lead, even with 40% of precincts outstanding; at the risk of being premature, I’m going to call this one for Deeds (who, in the interest of full disclosure, I voted for).
Deeds had a late surge in the polls to become the strong front-runner. Even though a lot of people had started to consider Deeds an also-ran due to his dismal early polling, primary elections are volatile and Deeds ended up emerging as the safest choice.
McAuliffe had a lot of money and connections but no electoral experience, and his checkered past as head of the DNC and Hillary Clinton campaign flack was a major strike against him. Brian Moran portrayed himself as the progressive alternative to McAuliffe’s establishmentarian record, but Moran’s newfound progressiveness always rang somewhat hollow. And all of the sniping between presumed front-runners McAuliffe and Moran left Deeds virtually unblemished.
Deeds was the safest choice, being the only candidate in the race who had run for statewide office before. In fact, he ran against the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate, Bob McDonnell, for Attorney General; Deeds lost by only several hundred votes, the smallest margin in VA history.
A Deeds-McDonnell rematch is both poetic justice and welcome news, since VA is certainly more progressive-friendly than it was in 2005. As The Washington Post said, Creigh Deeds will be a Governor in the successful Warner-Kaine tradition.
UPDATE: File this under things I’ve never seen before–a Twitter concession from Brian Moran:
And make sure to stop on by and show your support for newly-minted Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds.
Filed under: Conservatives, Government, Media, Polls, Progressives, Right-Wing Noise Machine | Tags: 100 Days, Barack Obama, Democrats, Numbers, Popularity, Republicans, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Tea Partays
100 days into his Presidency, Barack Obama is still Mr. Popular:
Washington Post-ABC News (4.24.09)
APPROVE: 69% / DISAPPROVE: 26%
On the economy: 58% / 38%
On the budget deficit: 51% / 43%
On international affairs: 67% / 27%
On the situation in Iraq: 71% / 21%
On global warming: 61% / 23%
On health care: 57% / 29%
On U.S. relations with Cuba: 61% / 28%
On the situation in Afghanistan: 63% / 26%
On immigration: 48% / 35%
On taxes: 54% / 35%
Pew Research Center (4.23.09)
You read that right–Obama is more favorable than both Bush and Clinton were 100 days in, and he’s second only to Ronald Reagan in job approval.
And just so I don’t get accused of cherry-picking, here are the Pollster composites:
National Job Approval
APPROVE: 61.2% / DISAPPROVE: 32.4%
Favorability
FAVORABLE: 62.8% / UNFAVORABLE: 26.5%
What does this tell us? Well, despite the tea partays, despite the full-tilt pace of the conservative outrage-a-day machine, despite all the right-wing sound and fury over Obama, he is one of the most popular, well-liked and broadly supported Presidents in modern American history.
The GOP really does oppose Obama at their own peril–the more vehemently they fight against him, the more they alienate the American people.
Filed under: 2009 Election, Conservatives, House, Polls, Progressives | Tags: 2009, Epic Fail, Michael Steele, RNC, RNC Chairman, Scott Murphy
He couldn’t even pull off a win in the heavily-Republican NY-20. I wonder how long the members of the RNC will let him keep running their party into the ground– I bet a lot of them have some pretty serious buyer’s remorse right now.
And, of course, congratulations Congressman-elect Murphy.
Filed under: Conservatives, Government, House, Media, Polls, Progressives, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Senate | Tags: Congress, Democrats, Gallup, Numbers, Popularity, Republicans
…is still popular.
After passing the conservative-dubbed spendulus/porkulus/Generational Theft Act of 2009, Congress is…the most popular it’s been in more than 4 years:
Americans’ job approval rating of Congress is up an additional 8 points this month, after a 12-point increase last month, and now stands at 39% — the most positive assessment of Congress since February 2005.
[Emphasis mine]
Congress’ popularity is up among all groups, but mostly among Democrats and Independents:
So, what does this tell us? First, conservatives are far outside the mainstream–they spent weeks maligning the economic stimulus package, only to see Congress’ approval ratings shoot up after it was passed.
Second, despite all the right-wing gibbering about socialism or deficits or whatever their latest talking point is, the American people clearly want to see their government doing something about the economic crisis. Part of the reason why Congress was so unpopular between 2007 and early 2009 was because, with a Republican President, very little got done. Now that Bush is gone, Congress and the President are finally getting to work solving some of our nation’s most pressing problems, and clearly the American people appreciate that.
Keep doing what you’re doing, Congress; taking action and being effective is the best way to refute garbage right-wing talking points.
Filed under: 2008 Election, Conservatives, Economics, Governors, Media, Polls, Progressives | Tags: 2008, Bobby Jindal, Budget, Democrats, Federal Spending, Gail Collins, Hypocrisy, Republicans, States, Stupidity, Taxes
Louisiana has gotten $130 billion in post-Katrina aid. How is it that the stars of the Republican austerity movement come from the states that suck up the most federal money? Taxpayers in New York send way more to Washington than they get back so more can go to places like Alaska and Louisiana. Which is fine, as long as we don’t have to hear their governors bragging about how the folks who elected them want to keep their tax money to themselves. Of course they do! That’s because they’re living off ours.
Here are the top ten states that receive the most federal tax money per every dollar they pay, color-coded by how they voted in the 2008 Presidential election:
- New Mexico
- Mississippi
- Alaska
- Louisiana
- West Virginia
- North Dakota
- Alabama
- South Dakota
- Kentucky
- Virginia
Here are the top ten states that receive the least federal tax money per every dollar they pay, color-coded by how they voted in the 2008 Presidential election:
- New Jersey
- Nevada
- Connecticut
- New Hampshire
- Minnesota
- Illinois
- Delaware
- California
- New York
- Colorado
[Source]
So, if we actually listened to Republicans and cut federal taxes, the Republican-voting red states would be hurt the most. Turns out that the GOP’s grandstanding on taxes is nothing more than hot air–they have no problem railing against high taxes while simultaneously taking tax dollars hand-over-fist from blue states.
Filed under: Conservatives, Media, Polls, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Rights | Tags: Civil Unions, Gay Marriage, Michael Steele, Mike Gallagher, Newsweek, Numbers, Republicans, Rights
[RADIO HOST MIKE] GALLAGHER: Is this a time when Republicans ought to consider some sort of alternative to redefining marriage and maybe in the road, down the road to civil unions. Do you favor civil unions?
[RNC CHAIRMAN MICHAEL] STEELE: No, no no. What would we do that for? What are you, crazy? No.
But I thought this was supposed to be the new “beyond cutting-edge” youth-friendly hip-GOP?
NEWSWEEK
Now I have a few questions about the situation for gay men and women in this country and the issue of gay rights…Do you think there should or should NOT be Legally-sanctioned gay and lesbian unions or partnerships?
Age 18-34 58% SHOULD BE / 31% SHOULD NOT BE
Don’t worry, though–the GOP will always have their TEA PARTAY:
Filed under: 2009 Election, Governors, Polls, Progressives | Tags: 2009, Brian Moran, Creigh Deeds, Jody Wagner, Mount Vernon Democratic Committee, Mount Vernon Democratic Committee Straw Poll, Primaries, Terry McAuliffe, Virginia, Virginia Attorney General, Virginia Lieutenant Governor, Virginia Secretary of Finance
This past weekend, at the Mount Vernon Democratic Committee straw poll, Democratic candidates for Virginia Governor, Virginia Lieutenant Governor and Virginia Attorney General made their cases to the voters and faced their first hurdle toward winning statewide office.
Every candidate showed up with just one glaring exception: Gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe, who didn’t even bother to show. For someone who’s shown so little interest in Virginia politics before he decided to run for Governor, skipping one of the state’s biggest cattle calls doesn’t bode well for his campaign.
In McAuliffe’s absence, Brian Moran brought down the house and won the straw poll in a landslide:
83 – Brian Moran
43 – Creigh Deeds
33 – Terry McAuliffe
You know what they say–if you don’t show up and ask for people’s votes, you won’t get them.
For Lieutenant Governor, Jody Wagner–VA’s Secretary of Finance–beat the other contenders by a healthy margin:
62 – Jody Wagner
44 – Jon Bowerbank
18 – Pat Edmonson
15 – Mike Signer
10 – Rich Savage
Delegate Steve Shannon, the only Democrat running for Attorney General, won universal praise for his campaign.
As it stands, the Gubernatorial race seems to be shaping up as a two-man contest between McAuliffe and Moran, while Deeds is quickly fading. One of the problems for Deeds is that he’s holding onto his seat in the Virginia Senate, which means he’s bound by campaign finance laws in terms of when and how he can raise and spend campaign cash.
Couple that with the fact that Deeds’ base is in sparsely-populated Southern Virginia–as opposed to Moran and McAuliffe, who hail from heavily-populated Northern Virginia–and you have a recipe for near-certain defeat.
McAuliffe is the well-known, well-funded establishment candidate while Moran is the progressive underdog; that’s the current dynamic of the race and it leaves nearly no room for Deeds. He should have a bigger role in the race, considering that he ran for statewide office in 2005 and lost by an extraordinarily slim margin; unfortunately for him, he’s just not out there aggressively selling his angle enough. Unless he takes some drastic action to change that, the dynamics of this race will leave him on the sidelines.
The Democratic Primary is June 9th. In all likelihood–barring some major change in the race–I will be voting for Brian Moran. But a lot can happen between now and the primary, so this certainly isn’t set in stone just yet.
On The Web:
Filed under: Conservatives, Economics, Government, House, Media, Polls, Progressives, Senate | Tags: Congress, Economic Stimulus Package, Liz Sidoti, Markos Moulitsas, Republicans, Unemployment
Markos Moulitsas comments on our woefully out-of-touch political press:
You’d think that the Beltway conventional wisdom would reflect the simple reality revealed in the polling: the stimulus legislation was overwhelmingly popular, Obama and congressional Democrats benefited politically from passing it, and Republicans are being punished by popular sentiment for opposing it. Alas, D.C. is located in an entirely different dimension from the real world.
MSNBC’s First Read declared the Republicans winners, because the party “demonstrated unity after its big losses in November.” The Associated Press’s Liz Sidoti risibly wrote, “Adrift after back-to-back electoral losses, they found their voice against a Democratic Speaker and an expanded majority … as they led the effort to define the package as too costly and too quick.” The propagandists at Fox News echoed those sentiments: “Republican lawmakers may turn out to be winners. Most of them voted against the package, and in their largely unified opposition, they found an issue to galvanize the party.”
The problem with the Republican Party isn’t a lack of unity. Conversely, finding unity isn’t going to save the Republican Party. In fact, if anything, the GOP was hurt because they were too unified behind bad policies.
That’s the GOP’s problem–they have bad polices, they have bad ideas. It doesn’t matter how unified they are or aren’t; unifying behind bad ideas is always bad policy.
Did people vote against the GOP in 2006 and 2008 because they were disorganized? No, they voted against the GOP was because Republicans had spent years implementing really poor policies that had disastrous effects.
Lining up behind a bad idea wasn’t a victory for the GOP; in fact, it was the same kind of politics-as-usual that got us into this economic mess to begin with.
But I guess that’s the Republican Party for you: working hard to solve problems nobody had.
Filed under: Conservatives, Economics, Government, House, Media, Polls, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Senate | Tags: Democrats, Economic Stimulus Packahe, Fail, Job Creation Bill, Polling, Push Polling, Republican National Committee, Republicans, RNC, Scott Rasmussen
Despite the Republican rhetoric on the economic stimulus package, poll after poll from a variety of polling outfits show nearly identical results: a majority of the American people support the plan, while about a third oppose it, since at least late January:
GALLUP
[2/11] 59% FAVOR / 33% OPPOSE
PEW
[2/8] 51% GOOD IDEA / 34% BAD IDEA
CNN/ORC
[2/8] 54% FAVOR / 45% OPPOSE
GALLUP
[2/5] 52% FAVOR / 38% OPPOSE
CBS NEWS
[2/4] 51% APPROVE / 39% DISAPPROVE
GALLUP
[1/28] 52% FAVOR / 37% OPPOSE
DIAGEO/HOTLINE
[1/24] 54% SUPPORT / 34% OPPOSE
Well, that’s the case for nearly every polling outfit except Rasmussen:
RASMUSSEN
[2/12] 44% SUPPORT / 40% OPPOSE
[2/4] 37% FAVOR / 43% OPPOSE
[1/29] 42% SUPPORT / 39% OPPOSE
Rasmussen’s polls–at least on this issue–are clearly outliers. He constantly undersamples stimulus support and oversamples stimulus opposition. There are only two conclusions to be drawn here: either everyone else is wrong or Scott Rasmussen is not a reliable pollster.
The way his polls skew isn’t surprising–according to the Center for Public Integrity, Rasmussen received nearly $150,000 from the RNC and the Bush-Cheney ‘04 campaign. Normally I wouldn’t shoot the messenger on something like this–pollsters have to earn a living somehow–but when your polls produce idiosyncratic results that just happen to serve the political interests of your clients, well, that’s cause for some alarm.
Polls don’t just measure public support, they often play a role in forming it. If you look at conservative blog coverage of the stimulus package you’ll find Rasmussen’s polls quoted all over the place while other polls with contradictory results are ignored. It looks like there’s an effort underway to claim–falsely–that the American people don’t support the stimulus.
Plus, Rasmussen has put out some bizarre surveys like this one:
When it comes to the nation’s economic issues, 67% of U.S. voters have more confidence in their own judgment than they do in the average member of Congress.
[...]
Forty-four percent (44%) voters also think a group of people selected at random from the phone book would do a better job addressing the nation’s problems than the current Congress
[...]
Fifty-eight percent (58%) agree, too, that “no matter how bad things are, Congress can always find a way to make them worse.”
This is dangerously close to push-polling. Plus, it doesn’t say anything about whether people actually support the stimulus package. Thinking you could do a better job than your Congressman (who doesn’t think that) or that Congress “can always find a way to make [things] worse” doesn’t tell us if you support or oppose the legislation before Congress.
What that poll does is imply what the opinions of it’s respondents are without ever just asking them outright, which raises a number of red flags in my mind.
Rasmussen’s polls are outliers. By every reasonable measure, the American people support the economic stimulus package, and do so by anywhere from 10% to 20%. As much as conservatives would like to twist the very fabric of reality to change that one simple fact, the truth cannot be buried, not even by an avalanche of untrustworthy, partisan polls.
Filed under: Conservatives, Polls, Progressives, Senate | Tags: 2012, Centrism, Centrists, Connecticut, Connecticut Attorney General, Democrats, Fail, Independents, Joe Lieberman, Numbers, Richard Blumenthal
Joe Lieberman, perhaps the Senate’s most notable centrist, is already being slaughtered by a potential 2012 opponent:
By a narrow 48 – 45 percent margin, voters disapprove of the job Sen. Joseph Lieberman is doing and give him a negative 43 – 49 percent favorability.
[...]
By contrast, State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal gets a 79 – 12 percent approval rating and 71 – 13 percent favorability rating
[...]
If Sen. Lieberman faces Blumenthal in 2012, the Democratic challenger has an early 58 – 30 percent lead.
[Emphasis mine]
I thought centrists like Lieberman were supposed to be popular? Perhaps there is something to this ‘centrism is bad for America‘ idea after all.
Filed under: Conservatives, Economics, Government, Media, Polls, Progressives, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Senate | Tags: Approval, CBS News, Congress, Democrats, Disapproval, Economic Stimulus Package, Favorability, Gallup, Job Creation Bill, Numbers, Polling, Republicans, Stupidity, Unfavorability, USA Today
A new Gallup poll shatters the Republican talking point that the economic stimulus package is unpopular and that Obama has hurt himself by supporting it:
So two-thirds of the American people approve of how Obama is handling the stimulus package, while nearly 60% disapprove of how the GOP has handled it. Who would have thought that working to get something done is more popular than obstructionism?
A full 80% of the American people believe the stimulus package is important, with 51% saying it’s critically important; that aligns with a February 4th CBS News Poll showing the stimulus package with 51% approval and 39% disapproval, as well as a February 4th USA Today/Gallup poll showing that 52% favor it and 38% oppose it.
Pollster has Obama’s job approval at 61.7% and disapproval at 25.5%; they show his favorability at 69.1% and his unfavorability at just 24%.
The American people support the economic stimulus package, they support President Obama, but they vehemently oppose the right’s culture of obstruction.
Filed under: Conservatives, Economics, Government, House, Media, Polls, Progressives, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Senate | Tags: CBS News, Congress, Democrats, Economic Stimulus Package, Fail, Gallup, Job Creation Bill, Numbers, Rasmussen Reports, Republican National Committee, Republicans, RNC, Scott Rasmussen, USA Today
A few days ago I warned that Rasmussen polls on the stimulus package appeared to be outliers. Rasmussen has consistently pegged public support for the stimulus at lower levels than any other polling outfit (and it’s worth noting that Scott Rasmussen is a Republican pollster who has been paid nearly $150,000 by the RNC).
And as it turns out, I was right. Here are the results of the dubious Rasmussen poll in regards to the stimulus package:
Rasmussen: 37% FAVOR / 43% OPPOSE
And here are the results of two other polls taken at about the same time:
CBS News: 51% APPROVE / 39% DISAPPROVE
USA Today/Gallup: 52% FAVOR / 38% OPPOSE
By every indication, Scott Rasmussen’s polls are outliers. No other polling agency is confirming the results that Rasmussen is finding; according to USA Today/Gallup, the number of people favoring the stimulus package remains unchanged from January 27th.
Yet, conservatives will tout the Rasmussen poll while ignoring every other survey, crowing about how the American people oppose the stimulus in order to validate their opposition to it. The GOP appears to be living in an echo chamber, listening only to those who agree with them and shutting out all dissent. For weeks, poll after poll has shown that more Americans support the stimulus than oppose it, yet you wouldn’t know that by listening to the Republican’s rhetoric.
The GOP opposes the recovery package at their own peril. When millions of Americans have new jobs thanks to that legislation, they will know that the Democratic Party made it possible while the Party of No tried to keep them on the unemployment lines.
Filed under: Conservatives, Economics, Government, House, Polls, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Terrorism | Tags: Budget, Congress, Economic Stimulus Package, National Republican Congressional Committee, NRCC, Pete Sessions, Republicans, Stupidity, Taliban
In a recent interview, Texas Congressman Pete Sessions (R) said something monumentally stupid about how the Republican Party needs to become an insurgency.
And it went downhill from there:
“Insurgency, we understand perhaps a little bit more because of the Taliban,” Sessions said during a meeting yesterday with Hotline editors. “And that is that they went about systematically understanding how to disrupt and change a person’s entire processes. And these Taliban — I’m not trying to say the Republican Party is the Taliban. No, that’s not what we’re saying. I’m saying an example of how you go about [sic] is to change a person from their messaging to their operations to their frontline message. And we need to understand that insurgency may be required when the other side, the House leadership, does not follow the same commands, which we entered the game with.” […]
When pressed to clarify, Sessions said he was not comparing the House Republican caucus to the Taliban, the Muslim fundamentalist group. “I simply said one can see that there’s a model out there for insurgency,” Sessions said before being interrupted by an aide.
Right. So Sessions isn’t saying the Republican Party is like the Taliban, just that the Republican Party should be like the Taliban. How is that an improvement?
Oh, and Pete Sessions isn’t just another Republican Congressman–he’s the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, the branch of the GOP responsible for getting more Republicans elected to Congress. I’m not exactly sure how saying the GOP should be like the Taliban is supposed to help get Republicans elected, but maybe Sessions just knows something I don’t.
And yet, despite incidents like this, we’re all supposed to step aside and let the Republican Party run our economy. Tell me, why should we listen to any of these guys, again?
Filed under: Conservatives, Economics, Polls, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Senate | Tags: Congress, Economic Stimulus Package, Job Creation Bill, Numbers, Rasmussen Reports, Republicans, Scott Rasmussen
Conservatives are touting a resent Rasmussen Reports poll apparently showing public support for the stimulus package dropping.
Recently, though, I pointed out that Rasmussen’s polls–as compared to other polls on this issue–have consistently shown public support for the job creation bill to be lower than average; at the time, I raised the question of whether Rasmussen’s polls are outliers. Right now it seems like that are, at least until another credible polling agency corroborates their results.
It’s worth noting that Scott Rasmussen, founder of Rasmussen Reports, is a Republican pollster–he was paid $45,000 to do polling for the Bush-Cheney ‘04 campaign and was paid $95,500 by the Republican National Committee in that same year.
That’s not to say that none of Rasmussen’s polls are reliable, just that they need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially when they happen to corroborate the Republican position on an issue. I wouldn’t discount Rasmussen polls entirely, but I won’t take their results as gospel until more polling comes out showing the same so-called trend.
So beware of pollsters bearing gifts, because sometimes what they bring really is too good to be true.
Filed under: 2008 Election, Conservatives, Economics, Government, House, Polls, Progressives, Right-Wing Noise Machine, Senate | Tags: 103rd Congress, 111th Congress, 1977, 1993, 95th Congress, Budget, Congress, Democrats, Economic Stimulus Package, Government Spending, Job Creation Bill, Paul Krugman, Republicans, Tax Cuts, Taxes
Barack Obama, yesterday:
Now, in the past few days I’ve heard criticisms of this plan that echo the very same failed theories that helped lead us into this crisis – the notion that tax cuts alone will solve all our problems; that we can ignore fundamental challenges like energy independence and the high cost of health care and still expect our economy and our country to thrive.
I reject that theory, and so did the American people when they went to the polls in November and voted resoundingly for change. So I urge members of Congress to act without delay. No plan is perfect, and we should work to make it stronger. But let’s not make the perfect the enemy of the essential. Let’s show people all over our country who are looking for leadership in this difficult time that we are equal to the task.
Today, Republicans control just 41 Senate seats, their smallest Senate caucus since the 95th Congress convened in 1977. They control just 178 House seats, their smallest House caucus since the 103rd Congress convened in 1993. There’s a reason the number of Republicans in Congress is at historic lows: the GOP failed and the American people took their power away.
The Democrats aren’t engaging in nasty partisanship by refusing to include every Republican proposal in the job creation bill; they’re exercising their rightful power as a majority duly elected by the American people. While I certainly don’t believe in majoritarianism–the rights of the minority have to be protected–the GOP minority doesn’t have the right to force every idea they have into this bill. Republicans lost because the American people rejected their ideology–they need to realize that their lack of influence is what the American people wanted, not some kind of idiosyncrasy or aberration.
It’s ironic how the idea of a mandate–which the GOP embraced after George Bush’s razor-thin victory in 2004–has gone out a window now that a popular Democrat is President. And it’s funny how the idea that ‘elections have consequences’ was also thrown out the window at around the same time. The truth is, yes, elections do have consequences, and the main one is that the losers have a diminished capacity to influence legislation. The GOP might not like it–just like the Democrats didn’t like it when we were in the minority–but it’s a reality they need to learn to live with. Obstructionism will not get them their power back, nor will trying to force their unpopular agenda through Congress against the will of the American people.
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman makes a good point:
But the part that really got me was [Columnist David] Broder saying that we need “the best ideas from both parties.”
You see, this isn’t a brainstorming session — it’s a collision of fundamentally incompatible world views. If one thing is clear from the stimulus debate, it’s that the two parties have utterly different economic doctrines. Democrats believe in something more or less like standard textbook macroeconomics; Republicans believe in a doctrine under which tax cuts are the universal elixir, and government spending is almost always bad.
Yes, there is a fundamental disagreement over how to best stimulate the economy and, to some extent, neither party will be happy with a compromise bill. But, again, the Democrats are the majority and the Republicans are the minority; the American people rejected the Republican Party and their ideas for two elections in a row. For that reason alone, the GOP should not have a significant amount of influence over what goes into this bill (which is fortunate, since Republican proposals are not as cost-effective as Democratic proposals). That’s how representative democracy works–the fewer people you represent, the less power you have.
I’m glad to see that the President is finally going on the offensive over this bill. The Republican’s obstructionism and politicking are more than shameful and it’s time for our President to use his significant political capital to get this bill passed. The American people are on his side and Republican Senators are “scared to death” of his popularity, so it’s time for President Obama to wade into this mess and set things straight once and for all.
